IMF October outlook projects Japan 5th by nominal GDP in 2026, behind India

Japan is expected to rank fifth by nominal GDP in 2026, trailing India, as weak productivity, a soft yen, and geopolitical strains weigh on growth. Recent data show a July–September contraction, while a separate forecast sees 0.9% expansion this year. A summer growth plan from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi targets 17 priority sectors alongside a large fiscal push.