Bitcoin's 4-year halving rhythm faces test as 2024 cycle lags past rallies
Bitcoin's traditional four-year halving pattern is facing a test after the April 2024 reward cut to 3.125 BTC left prices on track to end the first post-halving year about 7% lower. Recent data point to stabilizing forces such as ETF launches, institutional flows and shrinking exchange reserves, including 140k BTC accumulated in Q4, supporting the idea that the market may be shifting toward a longer "supercycle" rather than a sharp boom-bust phase.