Fed Holds Rates at 3.50%–3.75% for Third Straight Meeting

Thursday, April 30, 2026 — Futures Morning Rush Top headlines 1) U.S. President Trump told Israel's Channel 12 News he will not lift the maritime blockade on Iran until a deal is reached on Iran's nuclear program. 2) The OPEC Fund launched a $1.5 billion support program to help countries manage rising economic strain from disruptions in energy, commodities, and trade. 3) Indonesia's Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) said El Niño conditions and high fertilizer prices could cut the country's 2026 crude palm oil output by as much as 2 million tons. 4) The U.S. Senate Banking Committee voted to advance Wash's nomination for Federal Reserve Chair to the full Senate. 5) Iran's Press TV, citing a senior Iranian security source, reported Iran warned it would take "unprecedented military action" if the U.S. continues seizing vessels linked to Iran. 6) The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, the third consecutive hold, in line with expectations. 7) Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a press conference that while some officials opposed keeping dovish language in the statement, policymakers are not inclined to raise rates. He said the debate is shifting toward whether the Fed should adopt a more neutral policy outlook. Macro • China's Ministry of Natural Resources released the latest mineral resource inventory. China ranks No. 1 globally in proven reserves of 14 minerals, including rare earths, tungsten, tin, molybdenum, antimony, gallium, germanium, indium, fluorite, and graphite. In 2025, China ranked No. 1 in production of 17 minerals including coal, vanadium, titanium, zinc, rare earths, tungsten, tin, molybdenum, antimony, gallium, indium, gold, and tellurium. • The Wall Street Journal reported U.S. officials said Trump has directed aides to prepare for a long-term blockade of Iran to squeeze fiscal revenues, a high-risk bid to force nuclear concessions. • Trump wrote on social media: "Iran cannot reach an agreement. They don't know how to sign a nuclear deal. They'd better get smart soon!" • China's State Council appointed Liu Haoling as Vice Chair of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC). The CPC Central Committee's Organization Department said Liu has also been appointed a member of the CSRC Party committee. • Fed decision details: With 12 voting members, four dissented, the most since October 1992. Governor Miller favored a 25-basis-point cut. Cleveland Fed President Harker, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Logan supported holding rates but opposed retaining dovish language. • Market pricing: After officials struck a somewhat hawkish tone, rate futures showed traders assigning an 11% chance of a Fed hike this year (up from 5% earlier in the day and 0% on Tuesday). The probability of a cut remained around 2%, according to CME interest rate futures data. Global futures market moves • Oil surged: Front-month U.S. crude rose 8.57% to $108.49/bbl; front-month Brent gained 7.75% to $112.49/bbl. Drivers included persistent U.S.-Iran tensions and plans for an extended blockade that could disrupt Strait of Hormuz shipping, a larger-than-expected EIA inventory draw, and S&P raising WTI and Brent price forecasts. • Precious metals fell: COMEX gold slid 1.11% to $4,557.30/oz; COMEX silver dropped 2.66% to $71.78/oz. The Fed held rates but divisions widened, reducing perceived odds of cuts this year. Rising inflation concerns tied to the Middle East also weighed after prior bullish factors were priced in. • LME base metals lower: copper -0.36% to $12,989.0/ton; tin -0.43% to $48,745.0/ton; lead -0.59% to $1,945.0/ton; nickel -1.05% to $19,245.0/ton; zinc -1.23% to $3,329.0/ton; aluminum -1.31% to $3,492.0/ton. • China domestic futures (as of 23:00 on April 29): Most main contracts rose. Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) gained over 4%, fuel oil over 3%, and coal, BR rubber, and LPG over 1%. Caustic soda and soda ash fell over 1%. Steel and construction (black sector) • Week ending April 29 (Zhonggang Network): National construction steel output was 4.654 million tons, up 52,000 tons week-on-week. Mill inventories were 5.0258 million tons, down 148,100 tons. Social inventories were 6.8875 million tons, down 319,600 tons. • CISA Vice President and Secretary-General Jiang Wei said higher oil prices tied to the Middle East have lifted mining and freight costs and raised inflation expectations. Despite iron ore port inventories hitting a record 170 million tons in April, imported ore prices remain elevated at $105–$110/ton. • Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting Local Real Estate Related Policies" on April 29, 2026, effective April 30, 2026, aimed at supporting essential and upgrade housing demand and promoting stable property market development. • Vale executives said if iron ore prices fall $10/ton, more than 50 million tons of iron ore capacity would exit the market. Agriculture • GAPKI reiterated: Indonesia's 2026 crude palm oil output could fall by as much as 2 million tons due to El Niño and high fertilizer prices. • Mysteel (Week 17): Imported rapeseed meal inventories showed sharp regional divergence. South China drew down notably, while North China and East China built stocks. North China inventories reached 68,800 metric tons (+22,500 w/w). East China inventories were 90,700 metric tons (+25,100 w/w), with both regions seeing clear inbound growth. • Argentina (week of April 22): Farmers sold 5.827 million metric tons of 2025/26 soybeans, taking cumulative sales to 12.1818 million metric tons. They sold 329,000 metric tons of 2024/25 soybeans, lifting cumulative sales to 44.7873 million metric tons. Total soybean sales across all seasons were 6.156 million metric tons for the week, with cumulative sales at 56.9691 million metric tons. • CCTV News: China's National Climate Center expects the east-central equatorial Pacific to enter El Niño conditions in May, with a moderate-to-strong event likely to develop in summer and autumn and peak in autumn and winter. Rapid development this spring and summer is expected to bring more rainfall south of the Yangtze River and above-average temperatures across much of the country. • Foreign media: Indonesia plans to extend its sustainable palm oil certification to the processing sector. Under Presidential Regulation No. 16 of 2025 and related implementing rules, ISPO certification will be mandatory for palm oil companies by 2027. • Survey expectations (week ending April 23, 2026): Net soybean exports for the 2025/26 marketing year are seen at 200,000–600,000 metric tons; for 2026/27, 0–50,000 metric tons. Energy and chemicals • China's Ministry of Natural Resources said during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, crude oil production will stay above 200 million tons per year, reaching 216 million tons in 2025, a record. Natural gas output will exceed 260 billion cubic meters, marking nine consecutive years of annual increases of more than 10 billion cubic meters. • Kazakhstan's Energy Ministry said it has not considered exiting OPEC+ after the UAE said it would withdraw from the producer group amid an energy crisis linked to the war in Iran. • Axios reported Trump and senior aides met oil and gas executives at the White House on Tuesday to discuss energy implications of a potential war with Iran and other issues. • Fujairah (week ending April 27): Refined product inventories at the port were 6.982 million barrels, down 472,000 barrels week-on-week. • Market talk: Russia may increase seaborne crude exports in May as port capacity recovers and weather improves. • A White House official said Trump's meeting with energy executives covered domestic production, Venezuela, oil futures, natural gas, and shipping. • EIA (week ending April 24): U.S. crude exports rose 1.64 million bpd to 6.438 million bpd. Commercial crude inventories excluding the SPR fell 6.234 million barrels to 459 million barrels (-1.34%). Metals • Vale Q1 2026 results: Sales improved across segments. Iron ore sales rose 4% (+3 million tons) year-on-year; copper sales rose 11% (+9,000 tons); nickel sales rose 15% (+6,000 tons). • SMM: Philippine nickel ore quotes are broadly steady, but downstream smelters are pressing for lower prices. Mines often compromise to maintain shipments; prices may face more downward pressure in May. • World Gold Council (Q1 2026 Global Gold Demand Trends): Global gold demand, including OTC, totaled 1,231 metric tons in Q1, up 2% year-on-year. • SMM: Some secondary lead smelters in North, East, and Central China ran at about 80% of normal output this month. Raw material shortages are expected to keep May output constrained, with no ramp-up plans. Analyst watch • Industrial silicon: China Everbright Futures said prices jumped during Wednesday's morning session alongside a sharp rise in open interest, with an intraday gain nearing 4% before retreating to around +2%. The move was linked to unconfirmed reports that some regions may scrap preferential power tariffs. Given the product's high power intensity, expectations of higher costs drove the spike, with similar moves in ferrosilicon. Investors are advised to watch for policy confirmation and avoid overtrading rumors. With sentiment still weak and costs declining, range-bound trading at lower levels may persist. • Live hogs: China Construction Bank Futures said the capacity cycle suggests the market is in the later stage of bottoming, with clearer policy support and a potentially approaching turning point, though confirmation is still needed. The April 28 Politburo meeting stressed boosting agricultural production and stabilizing prices of agricultural products such as pork, echoing the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' push for a "reasonable rebound" in pork prices. Frozen meat inventories show both active bargain buying and passive stockpiling, entering a phase of moderate inventory growth. The key indicator to watch is whether average hog weights sold by small-scale farmers fall below 140 kg, signaling easing delayed selling. Confirmation of an inventory turning point would require concentrated sales of large hogs and a narrowing spread between standard and fat hog prices. Near-term risks include pullbacks from concentrated selling and frozen meat releases; medium- to long-term variables include renewed restocking after a price rebound and slower-than-expected capacity reduction. Key data and events 1) April 30, 09:30 — China official manufacturing PMI and steel industry PMI for April. 2) April 30, 20:00 — Chile monthly copper production. 3) April 30, 20:30 U.S. time — Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 25.