Bitcoin is on track to finish Q4 2025 with a loss of almost 22%, its softest fourth-quarter performance since the 2018 downturn. The price has hovered between $85,000 and $90,000 in recent days, as on-chain indicators and macro headwinds highlight fading speculative demand and a cautious market tone.

On December 22, Fold Holdings, a Bitcoin-focused financial services company, announced its inclusion in the Russell 2000 Index, a benchmark tracking small-cap U.S. equities. At the same time, MSCI has proposed removing firms whose digital asset holdings make up 50% or more of total assets from its indexes, a move analysts say could trigger multi‑billion‑dollar outflows. MSCI's consultation runs until January 15, 2025, and its final decision may shape how other major index providers treat companies with large crypto treasuries.

Strategy raised $747.8 million in net proceeds by selling 4.535 million Class A common shares between Dec. 15 and 21, boosting its cash reserve to $2.19 billion while halting fresh Bitcoin purchases. The company holds 671,268 BTC acquired for $50.33 billion in total and is building a USD reserve to cover at least 12 months of preferred dividends and interest, with a long-term target of 24 months or more.

Bitcoin is trading close to $88,000 as it moves within a descending channel and approaches a critical technical region around the $88,400–$89,000 moving averages. At the same time, Coinbase is set to acquire prediction markets firm The Clearing Company, Metaplanet has approved dividend-paying Bitcoin-linked shares, and Ghana has legalized crypto trading under a new law, all reinforcing long-term adoption while traders watch for a break above $90,500 or a drop below $84,500.

On December 23, Trump Media & Technology Group, led by CEO Devin Nunes, purchased about 450 Bitcoin valued near $40.3 million, raising its holdings to 11,542 BTC worth roughly $1.04 billion. Following the acquisition, the company’s DJT stock fell close to 10%, while analysts highlighted both the strategic diversification into crypto and the regulatory uncertainty around such large treasury allocations. Bitcoin trades around $88,309.63 with a market cap of $1.76 trillion and a dominance near 58.96%.

In Q4 2025, on-chain metrics and market flows point to a Bitcoin demand gap, with US spot ETFs moving to net redemptions and aggregate holdings down by roughly 24,000 BTC. Analysts citing CryptoQuant and Alphractal describe a "bear season", while price analogs from Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer highlight support near $65,000–$75,000.

Bitcoin has been confined to a tight $87,500–$89,000 band after a dip toward $85,000 last week. According to analyst DrBullZeus, a decisive move above resistance just below $90,000 could open a run to $92,000, while a loss of $87,000 support may revisit $85,000. At press time, BTC trades at $89,690, up 1.1% in 24 hours.

According to on-chain data, Bitcoin wallets holding 10,000–100,000 BTC reduced balances by 36,500 BTC since the start of December. The coins moved or sold total roughly $3.37 billion as BTC traded in a choppy $85,000–$94,000 range. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was near $89,646.