Analyst: Rising geopolitical tensions could lift oil prices and amplify market volatility

Odaily Planet Daily News: Garrett Jin, an agent for the "1011 Insider Whale", wrote on X that Trump has issued Iran a 48-hour ultimatum demanding full restoration of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, sharply raising tensions. He outlined three potential ramifications. First, the diplomatic buffer may be gone: previously low-profile talks between Iran and Japan on sequential vessel passage could be halted. Second, the conflict could take on a more severe character: if strikes expand to civilian infrastructure such as power facilities, Iran's stance may harden and the likelihood of a prolonged war could rise. Third, oil-market turbulence may spike and mispricing could worsen: the oil volatility index (OVX) has climbed to 93, while the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is around 24, pushing the ratio close to four-to-one and suggesting oil-market risk is being priced well above equities. He added that oil prices and broader market volatility may continue to rise, and expectations for the conflict's duration are extending.