Amber Data Projects Bitcoin Range of $60,000 to $180,000 Across 2026 Scenarios

Amber Data assigns a 50% probability to Bitcoin consolidating between $90,000 and $120,000 in 2026, with a 25% chance of a bull case reaching $120,000 to $180,000. The firm also sees a 20% probability of a bearish range between $60,000 and $80,000, and a 5% likelihood of choppy trading between $75,000 and $110,000. These scenarios depend on spot Bitcoin ETF flows, basis rates, funding levels, order book depth, open interest and HODL wave data, including whether weekly ETF inflows exceed $1 billion or sustained outflows surpass $1 billion per week.