Technical Analysis

Bitcoin recovered to $86,100 on Sunday after falling to $80,500, rising 2.5% in 24 hours as Strategy CEO Michael Saylor disputed concerns over MSCI's potential index removal. MSCI announced on October 10 that companies holding over 50% of assets in digital currencies may be delisted from its equity indices. JPMorgan warned Strategy could face up to $8.8 billion in outflows if multiple index providers follow suit, according to a research report published Wednesday.

On-chain data shows approximately 71,000 BTC in long positions versus 27,900 BTC in shorts across 19 exchanges, according to Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson. The disparity has triggered cascading liquidations as Bitcoin breached key support levels at $100,000 and $90,000. Bitcoin traded at $86,251 at the reported time, up 3% over 24 hours.

Social media narratives frequently oversimplify relationships between M2 money supply, the U.S. dollar, and Bitcoin price movements. Analysis of 12 months of daily data shows liquidity measures and the DXY index affect Bitcoin through distinct time lags and regime-dependent correlations rather than direct causality. M2 demonstrates an 84-day correlation window, while dollar strength operates through faster mechanisms, with both relationships shifting around market cycle phases.

Solana trades near $130 as a technical death cross between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages forms for the first time since early 2023. The cryptocurrency remains within a descending channel established in mid-September, with the $121–$123 support zone under mounting pressure. A breakdown below this level could expose SOL to declines toward $107 and potentially $95.

Polymarket contracts show traders pricing a 67 percent probability for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut at the December meeting. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said monetary policy is at an appropriate level and additional data is needed before supporting further easing. The likelihood of no policy change stands at approximately 32 percent, according to Polymarket.

Bitcoin traded near $86,036, up 2.84% in 24 hours, after testing the $80,500–$84,000 demand zone. The RSI fell to 26, marking one of the deepest oversold readings in 2025. Daily candles show long lower wicks, indicating slowing sell pressure at structural support levels.

Large Bitcoin holders accumulated over 26,300 BTC valued at approximately $2.3 billion as the weekly Relative Strength Index dropped to 33, its lowest level in nearly three years. Data show entities holding more than 10,000 BTC per wallet moved into net accumulation following a sharp market correction. ARK Invest deployed roughly $39 million into crypto-related equities on November 19–20, 2025, while U.K. government holdings tracked by Arkham Intelligence stand near 61,245 BTC, valued at $5.18 billion.

Bitcoin was trading at approximately $85,143 on November 21, positioned well above key on-chain valuation bands that have historically marked cycle bottoms near $55,900 and $44,700, data show. Analyst Peter Schiff warned that ETF-driven liquidity could enable early holders to exit positions and pressure prices lower. Trader Rekt Fencer outlined a scenario projecting a retracement toward $75,000 before a potential rally to $130,000.

XRP rebounded 6% after finding support above $2.02, providing short-term stability. The token remains below key moving averages, with technical indicators showing cautious stabilization. A cluster of resistance levels and substantial sell walls between $2.05 and $2.10 now pose significant obstacles to further upside momentum.

Bitcoin climbed 2% after trading in deeply oversold territory, with momentum indicators on the daily chart showing potential exhaustion of selling pressure. The asset remains below declining moving averages, maintaining bearish trend structure. Oversold conditions may enable a relief bounce if key support levels hold and buying interest returns.