On February 19, 2026, a Federal Reserve Finance and Economics Discussion Series paper reported that Kalshi’s prediction markets can match the accuracy of professional economic forecasters, especially for federal funds rate expectations. The study compared Kalshi’s market-implied forecasts to survey-based and other market-based methods, highlighting Kalshi’s continuously updated risk distributions. It also noted that Kalshi operates with full CFTC regulatory approval, unlike Polymarket, which remains in a legal gray area despite comparable liquidity in some markets.

On February 19, 2026, eBay shares climbed in premarket trading after the company reported better-than-expected Q4 2025 results and unveiled a $1.2 billion all-cash agreement to acquire Depop from Etsy. The move expands eBay's presence in fashion recommerce while the stock trades near $88.80, up over 8% from the prior close.

On Feb. 18, crypto ETFs saw mixed flows, with Bitcoin products posting about $133.3 million in net outflows and Ethereum funds recording roughly $41.8 million in redemptions. Solana attracted about $2.0 million, while XRP shed around $2.21 million, as spot prices eased to $66,883.15 for BTC and $1,969.49 for ETH.

In February 2026, nine major crypto exchanges stand out for liquidity, product range, and evolving features, from hybrid CEX–DEX models to institutional services. Platforms like BYDFi, Swapuz, Uphold, BTCC, Bitget, Coinbase, WhiteBIT, Kraken, and LBank cater to different needs, including derivatives, multi-asset access, and early token discovery. Traders are focusing more on fees, transparency, and infrastructure while navigating a market that continues to mature.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $133.3 million in net outflows on Wednesday, taking weekly losses to $238 million, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for $84 million, according to SoSoValue. Trading volumes slipped below $3 billion as sentiment stayed in "Extreme Fear" and BTC traded near $67,058, down about 24% year-to-date. Solana ETFs extended a six-day inflow streak, lifting year-to-date gains to roughly $113 million.

On 19 February 2026, market data showed a sharp rotation of liquidity from altcoins into Bitcoin, with altcoin volumes on Binance falling close to 50% from November levels. Bitcoin’s share of exchange activity has risen to around 58–60% and whales have acquired over 100,000 BTC in 2026, helping to support prices between $65,000 and $72,000. At the same time, macro uncertainty and spot ETF outflows have contributed to a cautious, defensive stance among crypto investors.

At its late-January Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the United States Federal Reserve left rates at 3.5%–3.75% but noted that further hikes could be warranted if inflation remains above target. The minutes show some policymakers prefer to hold rates steady for longer and see no case for additional easing until disinflation clearly resumes. A return to tighter policy would typically weigh on crypto markets by lifting yields on safer assets and making borrowing more expensive.

On Feb. 12, three researchers linked to the U.S. Federal Reserve published a paper arguing that prediction market Kalshi can capture macroeconomic expectations in real time more effectively than traditional tools. The authors said Kalshi's intraday trading data could be used to derive risk-neutral probability distributions of Federal Open Market Committee rate decisions, although the paper is only intended to stimulate discussion rather than guide policy.