Iran's Strait of Hormuz Blockade Shakes Oil Flows; Traders Still See $160 WTI as a Long Shot

CoinDesk reports that Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global oil supplies. A Polymarket contract tied to April 2026 WTI crude suggests the market assigns just a 1% chance that prices reach $160 a barrel by that date, down from 3% a week earlier. The blockade is estimated to have interrupted roughly 10 million barrels per day, impacting about 20% to 25% of global seaborne oil trade. Even so, every April 2026 WTI submarket on Polymarket shows the same 1% "yes" probability, signaling traders see a very low likelihood of $160 WTI despite the supply shock. Liquidity remains thin. Daily volume stands at $316, with an order book value of $20,174. The market indicates it takes about $2,188 to move prices by 5 points, leaving pricing vulnerable to a single large trade or fresh headlines. Trading activity is currently close to nonexistent. The muted reaction points to expectations that the blockade will be resolved or won't persist long enough to drive WTI anywhere near $160. If WTI does hit $160, a "YES" share bought at $0.012 would pay $1, implying an 83x payout. That risk-reward only looks rational if a prolonged shutdown is anticipated or conditions deteriorate materially from current levels. Key catalysts to watch include OPEC+ announcements, any supply reallocation by Saudi Arabia or the UAE, and updates from the U.S. Department of Energy on potential strategic petroleum reserve releases, all of which could shape whether WTI can approach the $160 threshold. API access: Predictive-market intelligence is available via structured API sources. A waitlist is open for early access.