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In January, the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.6, the strongest level since 2022, as U.S. manufacturing returned to expansion while Bitcoin traded near $78,000 in its fifth straight month of correction. Spot crypto volumes have fallen to their lowest levels since 2024 alongside $2.56 billion in liquidations and a total market capitalization of $2.58 trillion, as analysts debate whether the macro rebound can revive demand or if structural weakness will dominate.

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After a sharp weekend drop below $75,000, Bitcoin bounced back toward $79,000 on Tuesday, supported by renewed net inflows of about $561.9 million into US spot ETFs. Despite this short-term relief and broader altcoin gains, on-chain indicators showing roughly 44% of supply in loss suggest mounting structural weakness and the risk of an extended bear phase.

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The Institute for Supply Management said on Monday its Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6 for January, the highest reading since August 2022. Some analysts view the stronger print as a potential tailwind for Bitcoin, which hovered near $78,000 after touching $75,442 on Monday and remains down almost 38% from its October peak.

Spot cryptocurrency spot trading volume on major exchanges has slid from about $2 trillion in October to roughly $1 trillion by the end of January, reflecting weaker demand and lower investor participation. Analysts link the contraction to a liquidity squeeze, stablecoin outflows and macro uncertainty, while some argue the pullback is a needed reset to reduce leverage and reassess Bitcoin valuations. Market cycle metrics based on short- and long-term holder realized prices suggest Bitcoin may not yet have reached a definitive price bottom.

Blockchain analytics firm Santiment reported that fear, uncertainty, and doubt have surged across crypto social channels after Bitcoin fell 16% over the past week and briefly touched $74,600. Analysts highlighted that retail selling drove a market drop that erased $440 billion in value and pushed BTC toward key support near $74,000, while opinions remain split on whether a relief rally or deeper bear-phase continuation is ahead.

On February 2, 2026, several analysts detailed near-term levels for Ripple's XRP after a roughly 4% rebound to just over $1.60. Ali Martinez highlighted supports at $1.42, $1.27 and $1.06, while CryptoWZRD cited a $1.64 reclaim and a path toward $2.00 contingent on Bitcoin dominance. Spot XRP ETFs recorded another small net outflow on February 2.

Digital asset investment products recorded $1.7 billion of weekly outflows, leaving year-to-date net outflows at $1 billion. Assets under management have declined by $73 billion since October 2025 highs, with Bitcoin, Ethereum and other majors seeing withdrawals while short Bitcoin funds drew $14.5 million.

In a Feb. 1 analysis, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju argued that Bitcoin’s recent decline is driven by persistent selling pressure and a lack of new capital, as signaled by a flat Realized Cap and weakening liquidity. He said a full-cycle style 70% crash would likely require MicroStrategy to shift from aggressive accumulation to substantial selling, while other on-chain data from CryptoQuant contributors show stablecoin market growth has reversed since December and exchange inflows have faded. At press time, BTC was trading at $78,280 amid what Ki expects could become a broad sideways consolidation phase rather than an immediate capitulation.