Analysts offered conflicting views on Bitcoin after the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI moved back above 50 for the first time since 2022. Andre Dragosch framed the backdrop as "reflation" and supportive for BTC, while Michaël van de Poppe and Titan of Crypto cautioned that current cycle dynamics and a possible bearish divergence could temper upside.

At the start of the first week of February, Bitcoin traded near levels last seen in November 2024, with several analysts highlighting $76,000–$50,000 as a key support area and warning of potential downside below $50,000. At the same time, weekly and daily RSI readings are approaching oversold levels associated with the 2022 bear-market low, while CME futures gaps, macro liquidity concerns, a sharp precious-metals sell-off and a deeply negative Coinbase Premium are shaping expectations for what comes next.

Bitcoin stayed below $80,000 after a drop of more than 6%, and traders on X highlighted $74,400 and $49,180 as downside liquidity. Rekt Capital noted a 21–50 week EMA crossover last seen in April 2022, with BTC down 17% from $90,000 to $78,000, while a CME futures gap near $84,000 may pull price short term.

Bitcoin dropped more than 7% over the weekend, pushing BTC price under $80,000 and close to its April 2025 low around $74,500. The move sent Bitcoin below the $80,700 true market mean and threatened Strategy's more than 700,000 BTC corporate treasury, which turns negative around $76,037. Analysts highlighted mounting liquidations and key downside levels, including the prior cycle peak at $69,000.

Bitcoin briefly pushed toward $90,500 before slipping back under $90,000 as traders awaited the latest Federal Reserve interest-rate decision. Gold climbed to a record above $5,300 per ounce while the US dollar index weakened, adding to macro uncertainty that failed to trigger a decisive BTC breakout. Market participants highlighted the narrowing $86,000–$93,000 range and warned that a weaker rebound from support could signal growing downside risk.

Bitcoin traded near $88,000 on a volatile Tuesday session, with analysts watching whether support above $87,000 can hold into the daily close. One trader's tool signaled a high likelihood that BTC would avoid revisiting the prior day's low, while on-chain data pointed to only moderate positive momentum. A separate Wyckoff-based market view projected a potential "spring" swing low below $80,000 on the BTC/USDT pair around this week's key macro events, including the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision.

Bitcoin’s 21-week exponential moving average has crossed below its 50-week counterpart for the first time since April 2022, a move some analysts view as a potential new bear market signal. The last time this crossover appeared, Bitcoin needed about seven months to establish a macro low, while its current performance versus silver has already returned to levels seen around the 2022 FTX-related downturn.

Bitcoin fell to multiday lows into the weekly close, with BTC price sliding toward the $86,000–$87,000 region as U.S. futures prepared to open. Traders highlighted rising liquidations above $250 million, a potential U.S. government shutdown and upcoming Federal Reserve and macro data events as key downside risk drivers.

At the Friday Wall Street open, according to TradingView data, Bitcoin stayed under $90,000 while gold touched $4,967 and silver approached $100. Traders focused on the 2025 yearly open at $93,500 and key pivots at $86.8K and $91K, as Capriole founder Charles Edwards outlined a $12,000–$23,000 gold path over 3–8 years.