On Wednesday, Keith Alan of Material Indicators said Bitcoin will likely revisit the 2026 yearly open near $87,500 as whales push for a deeper support test. Despite a possible daily "golden cross" between the 21- and 50-day SMAs, multiple short signals mean a new all‑time high appears unlikely in 2026, with $92,000 support in focus.

In the first week of 2026, data from Capriole Investments showed institutions purchasing more Bitcoin each day than miners added to circulation, with net buying exceeding new supply by 76% on one recent day. The firm's Net Institutional Buying indicator has now been positive for eight consecutive sessions, a pattern that previously coincided with average BTC price gains of 109% since 2020. After Bitcoin plunged nearly 40% from its October all-time high of $126,200, some analysts suggest the asset could revisit levels above $100,000 in January, although outcomes remain uncertain.

Bitcoin climbed back to around $93,000 for the first time since Dec. 11 as markets reacted to geopolitical tensions in Venezuela, even as some analysts warned of potential downside toward sub-$80,000 levels. Technical signals such as an approaching golden cross on the four-hour chart, shifting whale order books and rising exchange inflows are shaping expectations for BTC, alongside upcoming U.S. labor data and Federal Reserve rate decisions.

Bitcoin hovered near 2026 highs above $91,000 into Sunday's weekly close while traders assessed potential volatility linked to U.S. military action in Venezuela. Market participants focused on order-book liquidity around $88,000 and resistance near $92,000–$95,000, with some analysts highlighting thin sell orders above $95,000 and a possible shift in Bitcoin's performance relative to gold.

On Saturday, Bitcoin slipped below $90,000 after briefly touching highs near $90,940 while markets reacted to US airstrikes in Caracas and claims that Venezuela's president had been detained. Analysts highlighted short-term "geopolitical pressure" but kept an optimistic view as long as BTC holds above the 21-day simple moving average around $87,850, while noting that gold has retreated up to 6% from its late-December peak as Bitcoin gained about 5%.

Bitcoin approached $90,000 into the first U.S. trading session of 2026, with a fresh CME futures gap and long‑liquidation clusters near $88,000 signaling potential downside. Liquidity and cross‑crypto liquidations exceeded $200 million ahead of the Wall Street open. Gold rebounded after its New Year's Eve dip, edging back toward all‑time highs and highlighting 2025's divergence.

Bitcoin opened 2026 around $87,500, with TradingView showing muted action after a soft Q4. Analysts on X flagged low weekly RSI and a tight Bollinger BandWidth, indicating potential for heightened volatility, while 2025 closed "red" and voices like Simon Dixon questioned the four-year cycle; others eyed $90K near term and $150,000 in the year ahead.

At the start of the final week of 2025, Bitcoin failed to establish $90,000 as support while trading around $88,037 and closing in on the yearly candle. Derivatives data showed elevated volatility after a $24 billion options expiry, onchain metrics highlighted key realized price levels near $99,785, and Bitfinex whales pushed BTC long positions to their highest level in nearly two years as they position for 2026. Traditional markets and precious metals hit fresh highs while crypto lagged, but whale spot activity and large order sizes suggested accumulating demand, even as Bitcoin’s nearly 40% pullback from its $126,200 all-time high kept sentiment cautious.

Bitcoin traded around $88,000 with only modest weekend volatility while traders watched the final days of the 2025 yearly candle. Analysts highlighted a three‑day bullish RSI divergence and a possible retest of the $93,500 yearly open, but noted that BTC is about 6% lower year‑to‑date and could post its first red post‑halving year, challenging the four‑year cycle view.