Wall Street weighs January jobs data as JPMorgan outlines five risk paths for U.S. stocks

Ahead of the Labor Department's January nonfarm payrolls release on February 10, 2026, JPMorgan's trading desk has laid out five market reaction paths tied to different job creation ranges. The bank sees 60,000-90,000 new jobs as the most likely "Goldilocks" outcome that could lift the S&P 500, while stronger or weaker readings may pressure equities and alter expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The report lands as the Dow trades above 50,000, small-cap and value shares outperform mega-cap tech, and Big Tech pursues hundreds of billions of dollars in planned AI spending despite a sharp selloff in software stocks.