Technical Analysis

Bitcoin’s spot price is hovering near $91,000, while options markets are marking up short‑term turbulence. One‑week implied volatility is spiking around and below the current level even as three‑month IV cools, pointing to heavier demand for downside hedges. With resistance still near $95,000, traders appear braced for a sharp move.

On January 12, Bitcoin slipped under the estimated $101,000 miner breakeven level while on-chain and macro indicators fueled debate over a possible short-term recovery. Some analysts highlight improving capital flows and supportive valuation metrics, while others point to weakened technical structure and resistance near $96,000 that could still cap upside.

Binance top trader metrics show 76.16% of leading accounts long XRP, with a long/short account ratio of 3.19 and a position-based ratio of 1.97. SHIB printed a short-term "mini golden cross" as the 23-day SMA crossed above the 50-day SMA, and a Satoshi-era miner moved 2,000 BTC ($156 million), the first notable activity since November 2024.

ETH’s estimated leverage ratio eased from 0.79 on Jan. 2 to 0.67 by Jan. 11 while open interest climbed, and spot-led buying strengthened. Aggregated futures OI has rebounded toward pre-Q4 2025 drawdown levels, yet ETH trades about 27% below its Oct. 10, 2025 opening price. Staking inflows and macro signals add potential tailwinds for a push toward $4,000.

On Monday, Jan. 12, XRP slipped despite bullish on-chain signals. Exchange reserves fell about 0.44% in the prior 24 hours, and roughly 2,692,600,000 XRP sat on Binance as millions moved off the platform. Trading volume surged 205.8%, while price was down 1.63%, pointing to resilient buying interest.

Dogecoin has risen about 17% from its December 31 low, with analyst Cantonese Cat highlighting a clear shift in how the coin trades around its daily Bollinger Bands. Price has moved from persistent pressure near the lower band to the upper half of the range, with DOGE recently closing around $0.1405 above a 20‑day basis near $0.1348. On higher timeframes, the analyst frames the structure as a Wave 2 correction between Fibonacci levels at roughly $0.1177 and $0.1542, with multiple upside extensions mapped out. The key near term focus is whether DOGE can hold above the daily basis line and eventually clear the upper band region near $0.1564 while trading around $0.13674 at press time.

Dormant Bitcoin moved on-chain, with OG whale spent value hitting about $286 million on Jan. 10, the largest revival since Nov. 3, 2025. Long-term holder distribution has cooled and accumulator wallets added nearly 136,000 BTC in 11 days, supporting momentum even as near-term volatility could test the $86,000–$87,000 zone before a $100,000 push.

Monero jumped over 20% to around $597, its highest level since 2021, while Zcash fell roughly 20% to about $382 amid governance and developer turbulence. Bitcoin held above $91,000 and Ethereum hovered near $3,100 in early 2026. Trader Melarin said on January 12, 2026 that XMR's long base could target higher levels.

Bitcoin trades near $91,500 after a brief push above $92,000 earlier today fizzled, leaving a minor daily gain but a 1% weekly decline. The monthly RSI slipped below 60, and analysts flag 60 as a pivotal reclaim for the cycle. Monday’s $92,400 high and resistance at $94,000 frame near-term risk and upside targets.

On Monday, Bitcoin underperformed gold and silver in what some analysts describe as the debasement trade, with BTC trading near its lowest level against gold in two years. Investment specialist Karel Mercx argued that investors now favor physical precious metals over Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat currency dilution, while gold also strengthens against the S&P 500. Other crypto commentators warned that Bitcoin’s market needs a stronger breakout as gold and silver notch fresh all-time highs.