On Feb. 20, the US Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump's emergency tariffs under IEEPA, putting more than $175 billion in potential refund exposure into play and leaving the refund process unclear. Bitcoin quickly fell almost 5% to around $64,000 as desks, facing uncertainty over cash flows and Customs collection mechanics, sold liquid assets to raise dollars and cut risk.

World Liberty Financial, a Trump-linked crypto firm, plans to issue tokens tied to loan-revenue interests for the Trump International Hotel and Resort Maldives, with completion targeted for 2030. The product offers accredited investors exposure to projected interest payments through Securitize’s regulated digital securities infrastructure, emphasizing private-credit style cashflows over real estate ownership.

On Feb. 6, Bithumb mistakenly credited about 695 users with at least 2,000 BTC each instead of a planned 2,000 won cash reward, creating roughly 620,000 BTC in internal ledger balances and causing a brief 17% Bitcoin price drop on the exchange. Trading and withdrawals for affected accounts were halted within 35 minutes, and most of the misallocated BTC was later recovered, highlighting operational control risks and prompting South Korean regulators to push for stricter oversight.

On Jan. 30, 2026, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $509.7 million in net outflows, even as several individual funds still showed small inflows. In the days that followed, flows swung sharply between a $561.8 million net inflow on Feb. 2 and outflows of -$272.0 million and -$544.9 million on Feb. 3 and Feb. 4. The pattern illustrates how one or two large redemptions can dominate headline totals while smaller, persistent demand remains, and why traders should focus on dispersion across tickers rather than treating the aggregate number as a simple sentiment gauge.

Bitcoin's weekend slide toward $60,000 left a large CME futures gap near $84,105 unfilled, highlighting that such gaps do not always close. The move between Jan. 30 and Feb. 6 showed how calendar-based dislocations between CME's paused futures and continuously traded spot markets can persist when volatility, liquidations, and broader stress dominate price action.

Bitcoin's supply cap of 21 million contrasts with a much larger synthetic market where leveraged derivatives on venues like Binance dominate short-term price action. Recent data shows perpetual futures volumes exceeding spot by ratios above 6:1, rising exchange reserves, and choppy US spot Bitcoin ETF flows, helping explain why prices fell even as spot bids and some ETF inflows increased.

As global investors reassess US exposure amid a softer dollar and shifting real yields, this analysis argues Bitcoin can function as a macro alternative when conditions align. It outlines four channels—financial conditions, real yields, hedging costs, and crypto leverage—while warning that leverage-led moves are fragile and snapbacks can quickly unwind gains.

On Thursday, Bitcoin fell in sharp stages from $84,400 to the low-$81,000s, triggering roughly $1.7 billion in liquidations. By Friday morning, it was attempting to reclaim $83,000 after hotter-than-expected PPI, while spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a -$817.8 million net outflow on Jan. 29 and about -$978 million across four sessions.

Deloitte's 2026 outlook spotlights T+0 settlement as a defining shift for tokenized securities and stablecoins, warning that streamlined reporting could create a market blind spot. Roy Ben-Hur and Meghan Burns foresee adoption via pilots and no-action letters, with early traction in collateral workflows. Faster clearing could reshape liquidity and venue routing, elevating operational and oversight demands.