President Donald Trump announced an immediate 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran, while Bitcoin stayed range-bound around $90k and closed at $92k with a 1.2% gain. Long-term holder behavior, ETF holders' $80k cost basis, and memories of October's 100% tariff shock and 30% drawdown suggest another distribution phase and downside risk cannot be ruled out.

BNY Mellon has launched tokenized deposits for institutional clients and selected Ripple Prime as an early adopter. This collaboration positions Ripple at the center of a potential "digital dollar" shift, as XRP ETFs have accumulated $1 billion in assets under management since their November launch despite XRP ending 2025 down 12%.

This week, Tether minted an additional $1 billion in USDT, lifting combined USDT and USDC issuance over the past seven days to $3.75 billion and underscoring strong liquidity demand. Over the same period, Bitcoin surged by $2,100 within 45 minutes after the Supreme Court postponed its tariff ruling, while stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data reduced the likelihood of a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut. Rising stablecoin transaction volumes, falling Tether reserves, and macro uncertainty are prompting traders to approach Bitcoin's next move with caution.

In March 2025, the U.S. established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve to hold seized BTC, but no federal market buying has taken place yet. Bitcoin ended 2025 down -6.3%, even as regulations such as the GENIUS Act and growing institutional trust reinforced its "digital gold" narrative. With 2026 beginning on a bullish macro note and gold having rallied 65% in 2025 to above $4.5k, traders are now watching whether the U.S. government will finally start purchasing Bitcoin for this reserve.

As January nears its end, Bitcoin is trading above $85k while 30-day open interest sits at its lowest level since 2022, indicating a market that has shifted away from excessive leverage. At the same time, U.S. job openings have fallen by 885k over the past 12 months and markets see only a 13% chance of an imminent rate cut, keeping broader sentiment cautious. If this combination of subdued positioning and macro uncertainty persists, a gradual move toward the $100k level by the first week of February remains within reach.

Ethereum’s latest BPO fork raises the blob limit from 15 to 21, expanding data capacity for L2s and reducing user costs while boosting scalability. Although earlier 2025 upgrades cut fee revenue by about $100 million as L2 earnings fell roughly 53%, growing network usage and TVL above $300 billion are helping support Ethereum’s fundamentals heading into 2026.

Analysts are framing 2026 as an institutional cycle for Bitcoin, with some pointing to a $150,000 year‑end target. In 2025, TradingView data showed MicroStrategy [MSTR] fell 45% and an October BTC decline triggered $20 billion in liquidations, while RWAxyz reported tokenized assets reached $18 billion, alongside pronounced institutional accumulation versus miner supply.

In early 2026, Solana gained momentum as Morgan Stanley submitted an S-1 to register the "Morgan Stanley Solana ETF Trust" with the SEC. While Bitcoin ETFs recently posted about $240 million in net outflows and Ethereum and Solana ETFs saw inflows of $115 million and $9.2 million, Solana's TVL rose roughly 9% this week versus about 6% for Ethereum. The SOL/ETH ratio has climbed around 3% from key support, reviving debate over whether institutional flows are tilting Solana's way compared with Ethereum.

As 2026 begins, Solana's SOL token sits in contrast to its network performance, having dropped 34.16% in 2025 while still leading Layer 1 rivals in transactions per second and on-chain activity. At the same time, Solana's memecoin ecosystem, anchored by BONK and major launchpads, has seen market cap and volumes climb sharply, raising the question of whether price can finally realign with fundamentals in the new cycle.