After the U.S. targeted Iranian tankers, the risk of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz increased, pushing WTI and Brent to $91.05 and $95.68, respectively. Both benchmarks have risen by about $5 since hostilities between the two countries resumed. API data showed U.S. crude inventories fell by 2.6 million barrels, while another 3.1 million barrels were released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to support commercial stocks.

U.S. commercial crude inventories jumped by 17.4 million barrels in the week ended August 7, versus expectations for a 1.4 million-barrel draw, lifting stocks to 424.4 million barrels, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. At the same time, agencies sharply lowered their 2026 global oil demand outlook, including an estimate that daily demand will fall by 1.6 million barrels, worsening from a prior forecast. Despite persistent geopolitical risk premia, WTI still rose 5.33% this week to settle at $81.19 a barrel. The growing clash between supply risks and weakening demand expectations is weighing on the outlook for prices.

Glencore expects adjusted EBIT of about $3.3 billion in its marketing business in the first half, marking a record high for the period. The company said extreme volatility in oil markets during the Iran war created arbitrage opportunities for energy traders. Glencore previously posted its highest-ever full-year marketing EBIT in 2022 as the Russia-Ukraine war reshaped energy flows and sent prices sharply higher. The guidance is set to be formally reported next week, drawing comparisons with peers such as Shell.

The U.S.-Iran conflict has sharply escalated, with the U.S. carrying out airstrikes on Iran for a sixth consecutive night and disabling a sanctioned tanker near Iran’s Kharg Island on Thursday. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly ground to a halt, and the Red Sea route also faces the risk of disruption if Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis move to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Brent crude is up 12% for the week, the biggest weekly rise since April, and was at $85.06 a barrel on Friday, while WTI traded at $79.88. U.S. gasoline prices could briefly move above $4 per gallon.

The article says the U.S.-Iran understanding on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is only a framework to negotiate a possible agreement by the end of August, with no substantive breakthrough. It adds that Iran is still seeking leverage over the passage, including “service fees” tied to safe transit. At the same time, global crude inventories outside China have fallen to multidecade lows, leaving little cushion against renewed disruption. Even as many in the market bet on third-quarter volume recovery and Brent sliding to $60 per barrel by year-end, low stocks make prices highly sensitive to any geopolitical reversal.

Citigroup forecasts Brent crude could fall to $60 per barrel by the end of the year as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal and the U.S. and Iran are expected to reach a deal in the coming months. It also points to weak Chinese crude imports and a surge in prompt Middle East spot supply that has pressured physical prices. Citi said global inventory draws have been far smaller than expected, signaling a near-term shift toward an oversupplied market structure.

An author argues that the Iran conflict has severely damaged Middle East infrastructure, disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and left U.S. strategic reserves nearing depletion, raising the risk of gasoline shortages in July. The piece says that a substantive contraction in global crude supply would deepen a recession and curb demand, pulling oil prices below $40 a barrel, drawing a comparison to the 2020 pandemic shock. It also cites disruptions to Qatar’s LNG exports as an additional strain on energy supply chains.