Bitcoin's cyclical market structure remains intact despite recurring claims of fundamental change, with analysis of miner economics, fee revenue, and institutional flows pointing to a potential bear market bottom near $49,000 in early 2026. The framework examines security budget dynamics, hashrate elasticity from miner diversification into AI hosting, and ETF flow patterns to assess three scenarios for the next downturn. Key indicators include sustained hashprice below $40 per petahash daily, fee contributions dropping below 10% of miner revenue, and persistent negative ETF flows.

Social media narratives frequently oversimplify relationships between M2 money supply, the U.S. dollar, and Bitcoin price movements. Analysis of 12 months of daily data shows liquidity measures and the DXY index affect Bitcoin through distinct time lags and regime-dependent correlations rather than direct causality. M2 demonstrates an 84-day correlation window, while dollar strength operates through faster mechanisms, with both relationships shifting around market cycle phases.

Multiple cryptocurrency companies have launched or filed for public listings near Bitcoin's recent all-time high, repeating a pattern seen in previous market cycles. Bullish debuted on August 13, 2025, and Figure priced its IPO on September 10, 2025—both within weeks of Bitcoin's October 6 peak near $126,198. Grayscale filed publicly on November 13, 2025, roughly 38 days after that top, reporting $318.7 million in revenue and $203.3 million in net income for the first nine months of 2025.

Bitcoin dropped below $85,000, triggering over $2 billion in derivatives liquidations across major exchanges within 24 hours. The cryptocurrency reached an overnight low of $81,600. Long positions accounted for approximately $1.86 billion of the liquidations, while short positions represented around $140 million, data show.

Bitcoin could decline toward $85,000 as it continues following liquidity-driven price movements tracked over 18 months. Order-book analysis shows the current channel between $90,000 and $85,000 represents the next major support zone. If selling pressure persists, deeper support levels exist at $73,000.

Bitcoin mining facilities that adjust operations based on grid demand are increasingly valued as a grid service in power markets. High renewable energy regions face elevated curtailment levels, while brief scarcity periods create value for rapid demand reduction. This dynamic enables mining operations to absorb excess midday power and scale back during peak demand hours.

Bitcoin dropped approximately 13% over the past week as rate-cut expectations shifted and exchange-traded fund outflows accelerated. Only four tokens among the top 50 by market capitalization posted gains during this period. Zcash, Monero, Uniswap, and ASTER outperformed through asset-specific catalysts that offset broader macroeconomic pressure.

Bitcoin has dropped through support levels at $106,400 and $99,000, raising concerns about additional downside. Analysts are monitoring horizontal price channels established since January 2024 ETF approvals, with potential support identified at $93,000, $85,000, and $79,000.

The United States national debt surpassed $38.118 trillion as of November 6, Treasury data show. When measured in Bitcoin at $103,500 per coin, the debt equals approximately 368.3 million BTC. Since January 20, the debt has increased by roughly $1.9 trillion, equivalent to about 18.36 million BTC at that price—more than a century of Bitcoin's current annual issuance rate.