On January 5, 2026, Bank of America's Merrill, Private Bank, and Merrill Edge platforms will begin allowing advisers to recommend Bitcoin-focused exchange-traded products with an internally framed "modest" 1%–4% allocation for suitable clients. The move channels part of the bank's roughly $4.6 trillion in managed wealth into regulated crypto access, potentially directing billions into Bitcoin over time while explicitly acknowledging the asset's volatility and macro sensitivity.

When oil futures opened on Monday after the U.S. captured Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro over the weekend, crude prices unexpectedly slipped while Bitcoin traded in the low $90,000s and moved higher. Markets are treating the event as a long-term supply story that could ease inflation and rate pressures, which may give Bitcoin more room as a high-beta macro asset, provided weaker oil reflects future supply rather than collapsing demand.

Bitcoin traded in the $80,000s on Dec. 31 while markets priced Federal Reserve cuts. November CPI printed 2.7% YoY and core 2.6% YoY, but quality caveats limited repricing, according to Reuters. High 10-year TIPS real yields near 1.90%, record $74.6 billion SRF usage, and roughly $3.4 billion spot ETF outflows have kept price confined around $81,000–$93,000.

In Q4 2025, Tether acquired 8,888 Bitcoin, pushing its BTC reserves to more than 96,000 BTC under a policy that allocates 15% of quarterly profits into Bitcoin. Earlier, a Sept. 30, 2025 assurance reported $181.223 billion in reserves, $174.445 billion in liabilities, and $6.778 billion in excess reserves, with Bitcoin valued at $9.856 billion. This structure channels yield from U.S. Treasuries and other reserve assets into recurring BTC purchases while increasing mark-to-market volatility and drawing ratings and regulatory scrutiny.

From Dec. 15 to Dec. 31, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $1.29 billion in net outflows, translating to about 14,500 BTC in selling pressure at a Bitcoin price near $89,000. Flows data show heavy redemptions spread across the complex, with IBIT making up nearly half of the net outflow, while just two sessions of strong inflows failed to offset several sharp withdrawal days amid thin year-end liquidity and macro uncertainty. The pattern has fueled debate over whether these ETFs function as long-term allocation vehicles or short-term trading tools as markets move into early 2026.

In late November, Coinbase’s large internal wallet migration distorted Bitcoin long-term holder metrics, making routine fund shuffling appear like renewed selling pressure. After adjusting for this effect, on-chain data suggests long-term holders are only modestly reducing sales, while ETFs and recent U.S. Federal Reserve moves continue to shape short-term market direction. Analysts outline multiple scenarios from stabilization to renewed distribution, emphasizing that any shift back to steady accumulation would likely take time to confirm.

An on-chain wallet known as "BitcoinOG" or "1011short" has shifted from its previously reported $197 million Bitcoin short on Hyperliquid to building a leveraged long portfolio across Solana, Ethereum and Bitcoin. Hypurrscan data shows the address opened 850 SOL perpetual longs within one hour on Dec. 25 around $123, funded by a net USDC inflow of roughly $291.5 million in December. The position now hinges on how funding costs and cross-asset correlations evolve, with scenarios ranging from a risk-on continuation to a correlation-driven drawdown.

According to CoinGlass order-book pressure data, Bitcoin has been constrained by dense sell-side liquidity while layered bids cushion dips. Since mid-November, price action has hovered in the high $80,000s as rallies meet resistance and pullbacks find support. Liquidity flashes near spot point to a controlled range marked by rapid order shifts rather than decisive trend.

Analyst Plan C, creator of the Bitcoin Quantile Model, has shared a new chart pack arguing that treating the current Bitcoin bull market as a repeat of past cycles could be a major error while BTC trades around $87,661. His framework highlights weak PMI-style business-cycle signals, persistent demand for hard assets such as gold, and quantile-based price bands that map potential paths between roughly $80,000 and $253,000 over 3-month and 1-year horizons. The charts also track Bitcoin’s performance versus gold and frame three macro regimes that could shape price action into 2026.