Over the weekend, Bitcoin fell below $65,000 before stabilizing on Monday, while Polymarket showed a 72% probability of BTC dropping under $55,000 with $1.2 million in volume. Bitcoin market capitalization decreased to $1.31 trillion, ranking 15th globally, and traders also priced 61% and 47% odds for dips below $50,000 and $45,000.

On 23 February 2026, data attributed to DWF Labs and Memento Research indicated that more than 80% of tokens launched in 2025 are trading under their TGE price, with many falling 50%–70% in the first 90 days. Analysts say these sharp drawdowns on major exchanges are pushing investors toward publicly listed crypto companies, where IPO fundraising has reached $14.6 billion. This shift reflects growing preference for regulated equities and clearer valuation frameworks over the traditional token launch model.

In the latest weekly Commitment of Traders report, technical analyst Tom McClellan highlights that non-commercial traders in Bitcoin futures have swung decisively toward net long exposure, a shift he describes as happening "with some urgency." He argues that, given the limited presence of traditional commercial hedgers in Bitcoin, these large speculators effectively act as the smart-money group, and that prior extreme readings in this cohort have aligned with significant market outcomes. McClellan stresses, however, that these COT extremes represent a market condition rather than a precise trading signal, even as Bitcoin changes hands around $65,663.

The crypto market slid over the past 24 hours, with total value near $2,26 trillion, down about 2,9%. Bitcoin traded around $65 761 (-3,26% 24h; -4,18% weekly) on $34,7 billion volume, while Ethereum hovered near $1 883 (-4,67% 24h). Indicators show Fear & Greed at 14 and the Altcoin Season Index at 31/100.

Bitcoin dropped earlier in the day to below $64,500, its lowest level in over two weeks, triggering almost $500 million in liquidations and impacting around 140,000 traders. One unidentified whale on HTX lost $61.51 million on a BTC/USDT position, while Machi Big Brother was partially liquidated on his Ethereum longs. His crypto portfolio loss has now exceeded $28.8 million, even as he continues to hold 1,700 ETH worth about $3.2 million.

Ether is moving toward a test of the $1,500 support area after breaking down from a bear pennant pattern, with a chart-based objective near $1,475 by late February or early March. At the same time, Vitalik Buterin’s Kanro entity has been selling part of a planned 16,384 ETH allocation, and onchain data indicate roughly 7,000-plus ETH still remain to be distributed. This combination of technical weakness and ongoing founder-linked supply could keep downside pressure on the ETH price in the near term.

On 23 February 2026, crypto analyst Doctor Profit said Bitcoin has shifted into Stage 4 of a six‑phase bear‑market framework after dropping from an October 2025 peak near $125,000–$126,000 to about $60,000. The roadmap outlines range‑bound fatigue now and a possible Stage 5 capitulation toward $35,000–$45,000, with a durable uptrend not expected until late 2026 or 2027.

On February 23, 2026, analyst Rekt Capital warned that Bitcoin could revisit capitulation-style declines similar to 2018 and 2022 if it loses support at the 200-week exponential moving average around $68,300. He notes that a weekly close below this level followed by a failed retest has historically triggered further downside, while recent weekly closes above it have so far delayed a bearish confirmation.