Bitcoin fell about 32% from its $126,000 ATH and settled into a $85,000–$90,000 range after selling intensified on 10 October and through Q4 2025. Long‑term holders briefly flipped from distributing to buying, while U.S. spot ETFs saw $1.12 billion in outflows (17–29 December) followed by a $335 million daily inflow, shaping the Q1 2026 outlook.

Bitcoin's spot and perpetual flows are sending mixed signals, with spot buyers adding about $113.23 million in the last two days and December purchases exceeding $4.11 billion. Shorts lost $40.56 million versus $2.47 million for longs, while a 0.0077% positive funding rate and a >1 Taker Buy/Sell Ratio keep buyer bias in play.

On Oct 6, Bitcoin peaked at $126,000 and has since fallen 32%. According to CryptoQuant, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged $5.5 billion in cumulative outflows, cutting AUM to $116.58 billion from $163.27 billion, while a BlackRock-linked investor cohort recorded six inflow days over the past twelve days. Glassnode also notes sustained retail accumulation.

On 27 December, BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc. staked 154,176 ETH, valued at about $451 million, as part of a revised Ethereum strategy. The firm already controls roughly 3.369% of ETH’s circulating supply and aims to lift its share toward 5%, while other institutional holders have recently reduced or unstaked positions. Institutional assets under management in Ethereum remain significant despite recent outflows.

Per Alphractal's Bitcoin Repeating Cycle indicator, the market peaked on 10 October and a bearish phase could extend until 16 October, 2026, with a projected $40,000–$45,000 bottom. Bitcoin has slid from a $126,000 ATH to near $87,000. TradingView metrics show muted distribution and a softening MACD.

Bitcoin has retreated from its nearly $126,000 peak to around $87,400 amid selling pressure, but several market signals now suggest a possible rebound in the first half of 2026. Structural exhaustion patterns, improving liquidity conditions, and sustained spot accumulation may support a multi‑week recovery and a move back toward previous highs.

Artificial intelligence tokens have recorded steep losses in recent weeks, mirroring weakness in AI-related equities and the wider altcoin market. Data shows AI tokens have dropped 24.9% over the past month and 74.6% year-to-date, while altcoins overall are down 34% with total market capitalization shrinking to $1.16 trillion. Analysts warn that the growing gap between falling labour participation and rising U.S. equities could signal a developing AI-driven bubble, with a major weakness signal possibly emerging by 2026.

In 2025, many newly issued altcoins traded below their token generation event prices amid a broader risk off phase. As the year closed, investors focused on selective themes, while most assets struggled to recover previous levels.

Ethereum is drawing liquidity as traders reduce Bitcoin exposure. Between 24 November and 8 December, ETH/BTC rose about 14%, per TradingView, and over the past 24 hours liquidations were nearly balanced at $67.42 million longs versus $64.53 million shorts. Derivatives data from Alphractal also show BTC perpetual activity dropping while ETH contracts hold near 17 million.