Polymarket prediction markets currently reflect a cautious stance on Bitcoin's upside in 2026, with traders assigning relatively low odds to a $150,000 price despite higher confidence in a move to $100,000. At the same time, several research teams and strategists project that Bitcoin could climb to $150,000 or even into a $200,000–$250,000 range if monetary easing, regulatory progress, and institutional demand align. This divergence underscores a gap between on-chain betting behavior and more optimistic analyst forecasts as macro, political, and regulatory factors evolve.

Bitcoin’s trend may have flipped to a bear phase in November after slipping below its one-year moving average, with internal indicators remaining weak since. The price traded around $88,794 at press time, and a potential bottom is estimated in the $56,000–$60,000 range, implying about a 55% drawdown from the all-time high.

More than $2.2 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are expiring in the first major derivatives settlement of 2026, with Bitcoin trading near $88,691 and Ethereum around $3,023. The options data show a bullish tilt, as BTC and ETH both sit slightly above their respective max pain levels and call contracts outnumber puts, raising the potential for notable price swings once the expiry passes.

The Federal Reserve released minutes on Dec. 30 from its Dec. 9–10 meeting, flagging rising liquidity risks and fragility in short‑term funding, according to the record. Officials weighed technical T‑bill purchases near $220 billion and repo facility tweaks, while, as of Jan. 2, traders saw an 85.1% chance the 3.50%–3.75% target range holds into Jan. 27–28, 2026.

Trump Media and Technology Group said Wednesday it will distribute a new digital token to shareholders through a partnership with Crypto.com, issuing on the Cronos chain. Holders are set to receive one token for every whole DJT share and may get periodic rewards tied to Truth Social, Truth+ and Truth Predict; DJT last traded at $13.24, up 5.33%.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, Tether expanded its Bitcoin reserves by about 9,850 BTC, worth roughly $876 million, as part of its policy of allocating up to 15% of quarterly profits into BTC. After these additions, the company’s main treasury address now holds 96,185 BTC, while other corporates such as Strategy and Metaplanet also continued to grow their Bitcoin balances despite a sideways price range near $88,000–$90,000.

Metaplanet, the Tokyo-listed Bitcoin-focused firm, disclosed that it bought 4,279 BTC in Q4 2025 for $451.06 million, raising its total holdings to 35,102 BTC at a cumulative cost of about $3.78 billion. With BTC trading below $90,000, the position is sitting on an unrealized loss of roughly $520 million, while the company’s stock has dropped sharply and its mNAV multiple has compressed toward parity. Metaplanet continues to pursue an income-generating derivatives strategy and fresh equity financing to fund further accumulation, mirroring the steady buying approach of Strategy and other corporate holders in 2025.

Over the past 30 days, on-chain transfers of tokenized silver have climbed more than 1,200% while the underlying metal has set a series of record highs. Monthly volume for Ondo Finance's tokenized iShares Silver Trust product surpassed $100 million, alongside a roughly 300% jump in holders and a near 40% rise in net asset value. Tight physical supply, new Chinese export licensing plans for 2026 and resilient industrial demand are helping drive both market volatility and interest in blockchain-based exposure.

Bitcoin’s mining difficulty climbed to 148.2 trillion in the final adjustment of 2025 and is projected to approach about 149 trillion around Jan. 8, 2026, as network computing power continues to grow. Faster block times and elevated competition are tightening miner margins, while Bitmain cuts ASIC prices and network hashrate shows a roughly 4% pullback into mid-December.