Prediction market traders on Polymarket currently assign only a 21% chance that Bitcoin will hit $150,000 before 2027, even as several analysts forecast much higher levels in 2026. The market instead prices an 80% probability of BTC touching $100,000 and 45% odds of it reaching $120,000, below its prior all-time high. This cautious stance follows Bitcoin ending 2025 in negative territory and comes amid expectations of a new Federal Reserve chair, lower interest rates and upcoming U.S. crypto legislation.

In 2025, crypto saw notable reversals: presidential pardons for Ross Ulbricht and Binance's CZ, a privacy-coin resurgence, and Ripple's lawsuit conclusion. Monero rose above $400 and Zcash surged 817% according to CoinGecko, while Ripple finalized a $50 million settlement and XRP set a new all‑time high. These shifts frame expectations for 2026 around adoption and regulation.

On Sunday, silver set a new high near $84 before surging 6% to $83.75 and then sliding 10% to $75.15 within 70 minutes. Gold also climbed to around $4,530 as rate-cut bets and industrial demand drew interest to precious metals. Bitcoin stayed muted in December at $90,160, down 0.5% over 30 days.

Polymarket said in a Tuesday Discord post it identified and fixed a security issue affecting a small number of accounts, attributing it to a vulnerability in a third-party authentication provider. Users on Reddit and X reported drained balances and repeated login attempts, while the company said ongoing risk was mitigated and it will contact those impacted.

Amplify has listed two new exchange-traded funds on NYSE Arca that focus on companies involved in stablecoin and tokenization infrastructure. The stablecoin ETF and the tokenization ETF provide equity exposure to firms such as Visa, Circle, PayPal, BlackRock and JPMorgan that derive revenue from digital asset payments, infrastructure and tokenized financial services.

A bipartisan group of 18 US House lawmakers led by Republican Mike Carey has asked the Internal Revenue Service to revise its crypto staking tax guidance before the start of 2026. They argue current rules can tax staking rewards when received and again on sale, and want tax applied only at disposition to reflect actual economic gains. Another draft proposal from Representatives Max Miller and Steven Horsford would exempt small stablecoin payments from capital gains and allow taxpayers to defer income on staking and mining rewards for up to five years.

Inversion Capital CEO Santiago Roel Santos warned that prediction market products on platforms like Robinhood, Coinbase and Gemini could raise user liquidation risk and accelerate churn. He argued that these "casino-like" features may boost short-term revenue but undermine long-term value capture, as users who are fully liquidated leave the platform. Santos suggested fintech apps should instead focus on products that support users as they mature financially, such as credit cards, insurance and savings tools.

Bitwise has filed a Form S-1 with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch the Bitwise Sui ETF, aiming to track the spot price of Sui, the native token of the Sui Network. The move comes after similar SUI ETF filings from Canary Capital and 21Shares, while the SEC has already approved a 2x leveraged SUI ETF and other crypto ETF products in 2025. Bitwise has also added SUI to its 10 Crypto Index ETF and continues to expand its crypto ETF lineup, including spot Bitcoin, Ether and XRP funds.

World Liberty Financial, a firm linked to the Trump family, has proposed deploying 5% of its WLFI token treasury, worth about $120 million at current prices, to expand the supply and adoption of its USD1 stablecoin. The live governance vote offers for, against or abstain options, while early community feedback appears slightly tilted against the plan despite USD1 already holding a $2.74 billion market cap.