On-chain data analysis shows Bitcoin long-term holders sold nearly $300 billion of BTC in 2025, including a notable 30-day spike between November 15 and December 14. Since December, LTH supply has stabilized near 13.6 million BTC and the LTH/STH ratio fell to roughly -0.53, conditions that have historically preceded base-building and later rallies.

In the first days of January 2026, Bitcoin accumulator addresses absorbed roughly 60,000 BTC while miners transferred about 33,000 BTC to Binance. This tug-of-war between renewed accumulation and rising miner outflows is unfolding as BTC trades back toward the low-$90,000 range, with on-chain flows and sentiment data pointing to a cautious but stabilizing market.

Bitcoin finished 2025 slightly negative at −6.36%, and prior cycles show years following drawdowns delivered gains of 35%, 95%, and 156%, averaging near 95%. Jesse Myers and Sminston With flag models that outline a $200,000–$300,000 base-case for 2026. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant metrics point to subdued momentum, with a 30-day average return of 0.0016 and a Sharpe-like ratio around 0.09.

From March to October 2024, Bitcoin traded between $50,000 and $74,000 before a 56% post‑election rally that coincided with a sharp rise in futures open interest. Spot ETF inflows of about $35 billion in 2024 and roughly $22 billion in 2025, together with a 50% drop in stablecoin exchange inflows, showed how sustained capital and liquidity, rather than headlines alone, shaped Bitcoin's breakouts and consolidations. Long-term holders realizing over $1 billion per day in profits and a halving of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio further constrained upside in 2025 despite bullish narratives.

Large Ether holders increased purchases while price remains below $3,000. Since Nov. 4, one "66k ETH Borrow Whale" accumulated 569,247 ETH ($1.69 billion), and in the past 24 hours Bitmine bought 67,886 ETH ($201 million). About 70% of derivatives positions are net long, and ETH's leverage ratio hit 0.611 last week.

Bitcoin is holding near $87,000 while participation and liquidity metrics cool. On Nov. 24, seven‑day inflows reached $21 billion on Coinbase and $15.3 billion on Binance; by Dec. 21 they slid to $7.8 billion and $10.3 billion. Price remains confined between $85,000 and $90,000, with defined liquidation zones above and below.

New onchain metrics show that newly formed Bitcoin whale addresses have grown to control nearly 50% of BTC’s realized capitalization, suggesting a major reset in the network’s cost basis. Short-term holder supply has expanded by about 100,000 BTC over 30 days to a record level, while whale wallets have been net buyers as smaller traders reduced risk.

Analysts say Bitcoin's recent weakness could extend into the $65,000–$75,000 area, but they view a potential move to $70,000 as part of a broader macro reset rather than the start of a new bear market. Traders are tracking a possible three-day bullish divergence and past recoveries after oversold RSI readings, while long-term models still outline a potential price path toward $300,000 by 2029. In this view, deeper pullbacks are interpreted as building the base for the next structural uptrend.

Across December, XRP has struggled near the $2.00 area as derivatives activity and spot participation weakened. Binance futures taker buy volume fell from above $5.8 billion in July to roughly $250 million, while the Estimated Leverage Ratio slipped to about 0.18. On Dec. 11, a long‑dormant wallet realized $721.5 million in profit.