From March 9 to 13, crude oil prices around $116 per barrel and several key US inflation releases are setting the stage for heightened volatility in crypto markets. With February CPI due Wednesday and January PCE data arriving Friday ahead of the March 18 Fed meeting, Bitcoin, Ether and the broader digital asset sector face renewed macroeconomic pressure. Over the weekend, the total crypto market cap fell by $40 billion to $2.36 trillion as traders reacted to surging energy costs and risk-off sentiment.

On Friday, March 6, roughly 31,700 Bitcoin options contracts and about 184,000 Ethereum options are expiring with a combined notional value near $2.6 billion. Bitcoin recently touched a four‑week high around $74,000 before retreating, while the broader crypto market cap has pulled back slightly but remains near the top of its recent range. Options metrics show a higher concentration of bearish BTC positions and a max pain level below spot prices, suggesting many contracts may expire out of the money.

Bitcoin briefly traded at $70,125 on Coinbase before sliding back to around $68,000 during Tuesday's Asian session, with analysts describing the move as an "insane reversal" after prior fear in US futures. Commentators noted that tensions involving Iran and broader Middle East conflict did not trigger heavy Bitcoin selling, while some compared current conditions to market behavior during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine invasion. Overall crypto market capitalization climbed 2.6% to $2.42 trillion, with Bitcoin leading the advance and Ether recovering levels above $2,000, as altcoins lagged behind.

On Feb. 27, about 115,500 Bitcoin options worth roughly $7.8 billion and 477,000 Ethereum contracts with a $963 million notional are due to expire. Coinglass places Bitcoin's max pain near $75,000, while Deribit notes call open interest dominance and a put/call ratio of 0.76 for BTC and 0.77 for ETH. The combined expiries approach $9 billion as spot markets weaken.

Crypto market capitalization rose 3.7% by roughly $120 billion to $2.43 trillion as BTC approached $70,000 before sliding to $68,000. On February 25, 2026, Santiment flagged renewed FOMO, while analysts debated a bull trap versus a relief rally, citing a Binance Fund Flow Ratio of 0.012.

On Tuesday, CryptoQuant analyst "Darkfost" said Bitcoin is nearing the long-term holder cost basis around $38,900, with LTH profits averaging about 74% and narrowing. Glassnode also noted the 90-day Realized Profit/Loss Ratio dropped below 1, while early Wednesday in Asia BTC briefly rebounded $2,000 to $66,000 amid broader bearish signals.

About 30,600 Bitcoin options with roughly $2 billion notional are expiring on Friday, Feb. 20. Coinglass places max pain near $70,000 and Deribit cites a 0.59 put/call ratio; another 212,000 Ethereum contracts worth about $404 million also roll off. Spot markets remain range-bound, with Bitcoin near $67,290 after a $65,700 weekly low.

On Wednesday, Glassnode reported that Bitcoin has slipped below its True Market Mean and is now moving toward the Realized Price of about $54,900, with spot and ETF demand remaining weak. The firm said the asset is in a controlled consolidation phase, while the Accumulation Trend Score and negative Spot CVD show sellers dominate order flow. Bitcoin briefly dipped under $66,000 in late Wednesday trading and failed to hold $67,000 on Thursday in Asia, reinforcing a bearish outlook.

On Wednesday, on-chain analytics provider Santiment reported that Ethereum’s proof-of-stake contract address now accounts for just over half of all ETH ever issued, even though only about 37 million ETH, or roughly 30% of the 121.4 million total supply, are currently staked. Santiment likened the address to a one-way vault that accumulates coins over time, while staking demand and validator queues have climbed to record levels as Ether trades near bear market lows around $1,970 to $2,000.