A macro-focused wealth analyst warns that rising tensions in the Middle East and potential disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a chain reaction from higher oil costs to stress in global market liquidity. As energy-driven inflation pressures Japan's long-running yen carry trade, forced unwinds could drain leverage and liquidity across risk assets, including crypto. In that scenario, settlement-focused networks using XRP for on-demand, cross-border transfers may become more strategically important as capital seeks faster rails when traditional systems are strained.

Crypto commentator Zach Rector reports that Tokyo-based Vlightup Inc. has gone live with a trade finance and global payments platform running on the XRP Ledger, using decentralized escrow for letters of credit. At the same time, XRP-linked U.S. ETFs are said to hold over 800 million XRP, with assets around $1.1 billion, while new yield products and regulatory tensions in the United States shape the broader market backdrop.

Kraken’s banking unit has reportedly obtained a Federal Reserve master account, becoming the first crypto-native company to gain direct access to the U.S. central bank’s core payment systems. The approval enables direct U.S. dollar settlement on Fed infrastructure but does not grant full banking privileges such as earning interest on reserves.

An XRP-focused analyst known as Common Sense Crypto argues that the token's recent climb toward about $1.39 reflects macro rotation from precious metals and growing ETF demand rather than a true decoupling from bitcoin. Watching charts that they describe as still bullish and closely aligned with bitcoin near $69,000, the commentator is eyeing a possible push toward $1.60 while dismissing early altseason and war-driven hyperbullish narratives as unrealistic. They instead emphasize rising XRP ETP volumes, disciplined escrow management, and future regulatory clarity as key drivers for potential double- or even triple-digit prices through 2026 if exchange supply tightens.

According to Levi Rietveld in a recent video, a path to $100 for XRP would rely on compressing the liquid float and sustained institutional demand. He argues that locking up as much as 90% of tradable supply, combined with ETF absorption and strict escrow discipline, could recreate conditions for outsized gains.

The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has released draft GENIUS Act 2025 rules that would bring U.S. payment stablecoin issuers under federal banking supervision. The proposal sets a 60-day comment period and limits issuance to licensed entities, clarifying that compliant stablecoins are treated as payment instruments rather than securities.

On February 21, around 31 million XRP moved into Binance, largely from wallets holding 100,000–1,000,000 XRP, while XRP network transactions rose about 40% to roughly 2.5 million. The host also highlighted SEC guidance that lets broker-dealers count stablecoins toward net capital with a 2% haircut, as Bitcoin's technicals keep risk appetite subdued.

In a recent video, analyst Kamilah Stevenson argued that many XRP holders misunderstand the token, which she characterizes as neutral settlement infrastructure rather than a typical speculative asset. She contends XRP is designed for periods of severe liquidity stress, when trust is scarce and markets are disordered, and that common assumptions about constantly available liquidity break down in such crises. According to her, XRP’s value could be in enabling large-scale settlement with fewer units under pressure, making price compression a functional feature instead of mere hype.

A crypto commentator links rising U.S.–Iran conflict risk and pending U.S. tariff decisions to potential volatility for XRP and other large‑cap digital assets. While a Trump adviser is cited as seeing a high chance of a limited strike on Iran that could drag markets lower, Ripple executives and Molt Media point to surging odds for the Clarity Act, with probabilities discussed at 84% by 2026 and up to 90% by the end of April. The video frames any war‑driven pullback as a possible entry point ahead of what it portrays as a regulatory‑driven uptrend for XRP.