Through 2025, institutional positions in the iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA) increased while Ethereum’s price remained volatile and range-bound. Entering 2026, ETH traded just below $3,000, with the daily chart forming a symmetrical triangle pattern that signals a potential breakout as price compression continues.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, charts shared on X showed global M2 growth turning higher and the U.S. Federal Reserve adding about $74.6 billion in repo liquidity, while Bitcoin’s price stayed close to the upper end of its recent range. The data highlighted a growing divergence between improving liquidity signals and BTC’s short term direction, raising questions about how tightly the asset tracks money supply and temporary funding operations.

Bitmine, which Lookonchain associates with Fundstrat's Tom Lee, acquired 32,938 ETH worth around $97.6 million and staked a further 118,944 ETH valued at about $352.16 million within four hours, based on Arkham-tracked transfers. At the same time, a Coinglass liquidation map highlighted roughly $4.54 billion of shorts and $4.05 billion of longs on Ether that could be liquidated if price moves about 10% in either direction.

On Dec. 30, Metaplanet Inc. raised its fiscal 2025 Bitcoin income business revenue forecast after reporting a sharp fourth quarter jump driven by derivatives. Over the same period, Bitcoin’s price moved toward a historically rare oversold reading versus a global liquidity model, a setup that has appeared only a few times in its trading history. The updated outlook now calls for 8.58 billion yen in full year revenue, well above the prior 6.3 billion yen estimate.

Bitcoin briefly rose past $90,000 before retreating toward the high $88,000s as liquidations hit both sides; Bull Theory on X cited about $103 million in shorts cleared during a late Sunday surge and roughly $40 million in long positions during the subsequent drop into Monday. CoinCodex's 365‑day model projects Bitcoin near $83,350 by December 2026, while Ethereum's forecast rises to about $4,768, implying roughly a 61% gain.

In Q4 2025, Ethereum smart contract deployments climbed to 8.7 million, setting a new quarterly record for on-chain activity. At the same time, one analyst's short-term Elliott Wave view highlighted $3,143 as an initial price objective after ETH reclaimed the $3,000 area. The combination of rising development metrics and a defined technical target underscored both network usage and a key resistance zone into year end.

CME FedWatch data indicate that ahead of the Federal Reserve's January meeting, markets assign a 17.7% chance of a rate cut to the 325–350 basis point range and an 82.3% likelihood of rates staying at 350–375 basis points. Futures pricing shows no expectation of a hike, reflecting cautious repositioning rather than a clear policy signal. Crypto assets, including Bitcoin and Ether, traded slightly higher but reacted only modestly to the shift in implied probabilities.

Ethereum is trading around $2,947 with weekly support still holding, while analysts outline support near $2,618, $2,252 and $1,818 and resistance between $3,348 and $4,619 as key zones into 2026. On the daily chart, ETH remains locked in a range around $2,940, with several potential paths including moves toward overhead resistance, retests of lower support or extended sideways action as 2026 approaches.

On Christmas, Binance’s BTC/USD1 pair briefly fell to $24,111 for about three seconds, a thin-book wick rather than a broad crash, according to Shanaka Anslem Perera. He also cited a similar Dec. 10 spike from about $96,000 to $76,000. On Friday, PlanB said Bitcoin near $87,500 sits far below stock and gold model levels at roughly $6,900 and $4,500.