Fundstrat's Sean Farrell explains strategy divergence from Tom Lee

Fundstrat crypto strategy head Sean Farrell said on Dec. 21 that differences between his market outlook and Tom Lee's reflect distinct client mandates, with his research geared to portfolios where crypto allocations are about 20% and above, while Lee's targets large asset managers allocating 1%–5% to BTC and ETH, BlockBeats reports. Farrell characterized his cautious first-half stance as risk management and cited risks including possible government shutdown, trade volatility, AI capex uncertainty, potential Fed chair transition, tight high-yield spreads, low cross-asset volatility, and recent diverging fund flows; he added BTC is in a valuation no-man's land, and said ETF demand should improve over time as major brokers join, though near-term pressures include selling by original holders, miner stress, potential MSCI removal of MSTR, and fund redemptions. His base case is an early-year rebound followed by another pullback in the first half, setting up more attractive entry points for year-end, and he still expects BTC and ETH to challenge new all-time highs by year-end; Tom Lee said in an interview that BTC could set a record by the end of January 2026, while Farrell's Dec. 20 report projected BTC at 6 万至 6.5 万美元 in 2026 H1 and ETH at 1800 至 2000 美元.