Bitcoin has mounted a recovery above the $103,500 support level after recent losses. The cryptocurrency climbed past $105,000 and tested resistance near $106,500, reaching a high of $106,593. BTC now trades above $104,000 and its 100-hour simple moving average, consolidating after breaking through a bearish trend line at $102,000.

Bitcoin has decoupled from global M2 liquidity trends since July, trading above $100,000 in November despite sitting 21% below its recent $126,000 peak. Analysts including Coinbase and BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes characterize the October 10 deleveraging event, which eliminated $20 billion in positions, as a healthy market reset rather than a cycle top. Options data show the market positioning for a $90,000 to $160,000 range over the next three to six months.

Bitcoin dropped below $100,000 on December 19, reaching an intraday low of $99,941 on OKX before recovering slightly. The cryptocurrency has declined more than 22% from its all-time high recorded earlier this month, entering correction territory. Betting platform Polymarket now assigns a 51% probability to BTC reaching $90,000 before year-end, up from 11% one month ago.

Shares of companies holding Bitcoin and Ether as treasury assets have declined sharply following recent cryptocurrency price drops. Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, saw its market capitalization fall from approximately $128 billion in July to around $70 billion. Peter Thiel-backed firms BitMine and ETHZilla dropped over 30% and 23% respectively in the past month, according to market data.

Digital Asset Treasury Companies allocated $42.7 billion to cryptocurrency purchases in 2025, with $22.6 billion deployed in Q3 alone, data show. Bitcoin-focused entities accounted for $30.0 billion of total spending, while Ethereum treasuries spent $7.9 billion, according to CoinShares analysis.

Michael Saylor posted a cryptic message on November 9, 2025, suggesting Strategy may expand its Bitcoin position soon. The firm currently holds approximately 641,000 BTC valued at over $65 billion, with an average cost near $74,000 per coin. Goldman Sachs forecasts Federal Reserve rate cuts starting December 2025, potentially creating favorable conditions for digital assets.

James Chanos has closed his hedged short position against MicroStrategy and Bitcoin after 11 months. Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, views the move as a potential signal that difficulties for Bitcoin treasury companies may be easing. Rochard expects continued volatility but characterizes the development as indicative of a potential market reversal.

Bitcoin has traded around $102,000 over the past 24 hours, data show. On-chain analyst Burak Kesmeci projects a local bottom could form near $95,000 to $96,000, based on historical UTXO age band patterns. The 1-week to 1-month realized price band crossed below the 1-month to 3-month band on November 1, a signal that has preceded corrections averaging 13.3% in 2025.