An on-chain study says Bitcoin is entering a new phase marked by widening differences between whale and retail behavior. In an X post dated May 16, Joao Wedson said the Whale vs Retail Delta metric has fallen to its lowest level since January 2024, a period tied to the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF launch and notable whale selling pressure. Bitcoin was quoted at $78,188 at the time of writing, while U.S. BTC spot ETFs showed a weekly net outflow of $1 billion as of May 15.

Binance logged a sharp swing in stablecoin movement in mid-May, including a net inflow above $1.5 billion on May 14 after a $1.3 billion net outflow on May 12. The flows were led by USDT, with ERC20 USDT cited as the most common variant. Bitcoin later traded at $78,200, down 4.57% on the week, as volume fell to $26.82 billion, with some forecasts pointing to $85,155 in five days and $80,062 in a month.

XRP pulled back after failing at $1.55 and has fallen more than 7% over the past three days while still tracking an ascending trendline. MCO Global said May 15 that holding $1.40 could keep another push toward $1.55–$1.58 in play, while losing it may open a drop to $1.37 and then $1.30.

In early May, Ethereum on-chain activity rose alongside a sideways ETH price range of $2,250 to $2,450. Darkfost highlighted several Binance inflow spikes, including 216,152 ETH ($511 million) on May 6 and 98,552 ETH ($224 million) on May 8. The analyst linked higher Binance reserves—about 3.62 million ETH, or 24.6% of exchange-held ETH—to continued consolidation as ETH traded near $2,329, up 0.6% in 24 hours.

Bitcoin is trading above $80,000 after rebounding from early April, though it is still about 37.5% below its all-time high. In a May 8 X post, analyst Aralez outlined a scenario for the final eight months of 2026 that includes a possible dip toward $60,000, a Q3 cycle bottom, and a Q4 move above $85,000. At press time, BTC was at $80,416, up 1.46% over the last hour.

Ali Martinez said in an April 4 post on X that Bitcoin’s CVDD on-chain metric places a potential macro support zone at $47,960. Bitcoin was reported trading at $67,279 at the time of writing, up 0.69% over the past day and 0.72% over the past week, while the broader bear-market drawdown was cited at 46.7%. The view suggests there could still be downside room before a structural bottom is confirmed.

Bitcoin spent March trading mostly between $63,000 and $71,000 after a brief push to $75,000, and it was priced at $66,930 at press time. On-chain readings suggest the main sell-side flow is coming from short-term holders, while older cohorts are largely inactive. The analysis also notes that the market has held its range despite ongoing STH distribution, which historically often coincided with sharper pullbacks.

On April 3, analyst Darkfost said Bitcoin retail participation hit a record low, with transactions under 1 BTC dropping sharply. Using Binance data, the 30-day moving average of retail BTC inflows was reported at 332 BTC, the lowest since the exchange launched in 2017. The post attributed the decline to mixed factors, including ETF adoption since January 2024 and some capital rotation into other markets.

Joao Wedson of Alphractal highlighted $60,490 as a critical Bitcoin level tied to Binance's Reserve Realized Price, warning that a break below it could put much of the exchange's BTC reserve at an unrealized loss. He noted BTC recently slipped to around $65,000 (down 5.14% over seven days) before consolidating near $66,000, while the metric sits about 9% below current levels.