The war involving Iran has disrupted Middle East energy supplies, lifting Brent crude about 22% since February 28 to $88 a barrel. ExxonMobil’s upstream earnings in H1 2026 fell by around $1.3bn year on year as Middle East output declined, while its Qatar LNG volumes are expected to drop to about four million tonnes from 13 million tonnes last year. ConocoPhillips’ Qatar LNG volumes are also expected to fall to one million tonnes from 2.5 million tonnes. Analysts said a recovery in suspended operations and production could support growth into 2027.

The US trade deficit widened to $77.6bn in May, up 42% from the prior month, as exports fell 3.2% to $317.7bn and imports rose 3.3% to $395.3bn. Gasoline prices were highly volatile in the second quarter, reaching $4.48 per gallon in May, slipping to $3.96 by the end of June, and then moving back above $4. The Federal Reserve paused rate hikes with inflation still elevated. Together, the figures point to softer domestic demand, a deeper external imbalance and sticky inflation, increasing downside pressure on US growth.

The global military AI industry is expanding quickly, with the U.S., UK and NATO accelerating deployments of AI-enabled warfighting systems. The UK Ministry of Defence signed a £2bn contract led by Raytheon UK to train 60,000 soldiers a year to use AI, while NATO awarded its air command-and-control data platform work to Anduril, Palantir and Athea SAS. The Pentagon has also struck agreements with eight tech companies to deploy AI across classified networks, as established defence primes such as Lockheed Martin and RTX embed AI into platforms including the F-35 and sensor systems.

International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is posing a serious threat to global energy security. The U.S.-Iran conflict has sharply escalated, with U.S. forces carrying out six consecutive nights of air strikes on Iran’s coastal cities while Iran continues to keep the strait closed and has launched missile and drone attacks on U.S. allies including Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan. The United States says it has reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports and that five vessels tried to break it, with one “disabled”. About 20% of the world’s seaborne crude oil moves through the strait, and the current closure raises the risk of a material supply disruption.

The EU’s newly activated digital Entry/Exit System (EES), fully operational since April, has caused major border delays at airports across the bloc, with some travellers queuing for up to five hours and some flights departing half-full. Industry groups said the disruption has reached a “critical point” and could affect an additional 40 million passengers this summer and $45.4bn in tourism spending. The World Travel and Tourism Council backed calls to suspend the EES to ease pressure. The issue stems from an operational failure in regulatory implementation, directly impacting aviation and travel-related traditional assets.

美联储在新任主席凯文·沃什主持的首次议息会议上一致决定维持利率在3.5%-3.75%不变。此举发生在通胀升至4.2%（三年高位）、能源价格同比大涨23.5%的背景下。尽管霍尔木兹海峡近期传出重开消息，但供应链中断、产能停滞和燃料库存枯竭意味着油价回落至战前水平需数月。该政策决定与高企能源通胀形成直接因果链，对原油资产构成短期支撑。