Iran says the Strait of Hormuz has been shut down, but U.S. President Donald Trump says 9 million barrels of oil a day are still getting out. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a post on X on Tuesday that the seven-day average for oil leaving the strait was almost 9 million barrels per day. Axios reported on Sunday, citing U.S. officials, that about 8 million barrels are leaving each night via a southern lane with U.S. help, while pipeline exports run about 4 million barrels per day, putting total flows at about 15 million barrels per day versus 20 million barrels per day before the conflict.

The U.S. Treasury is set to auction $25 billion of 30-year bonds on Thursday, with the when-issued market indicating a yield around 5.23%, which would be the highest borrowing cost since 2001. Long-term Treasury yields have pushed past 5% this year as investors weigh energy-driven inflation risks and expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep rates higher for longer. Traders cut the implied probability of a September rate hike to about 35% from roughly 50% earlier in the week. Interest costs on U.S. public debt have reached $1.17 trillion so far this fiscal year, up 15% from a year earlier.

Anthropic is targeting an IPO in October at a predicted valuation of $2 trillion, which would be the largest public stock offering on record and bigger than SpaceX, the Financial Times reported. Investors told the newspaper they expect the AI lab’s annual revenue run rate to reach $100 billion to $120 billion by the end of the year. The company is also reported to be in talks to buy “world model” startup Decart for $6 billion. Fed-funds futures traders expect rates to be held at 3.5% in September, a backdrop that coincided with gains of 0.26% for the S&P 500 and 1.16% for Japan’s Nikkei 225.

Iran said the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, intensifying concerns about supply disruptions and lifting Brent crude back above $88 a barrel. U.S. equities gave up earlier gains, with the S&P 500 down 0.3% and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.4%. As oil prices climbed, inflation expectations rose and markets repriced the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike to nearly 50%. Economists forecast U.S. July CPI rose 0.1% month over month after a 0.4% decline in the prior month, while a small-business hiring-plans gauge climbed to its highest level since October 2022.

Global risk appetite rebounded after Donald Trump pulled back from a tougher stance on Iran and hopes rose for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen. South Korea’s Kospi surged 18% in a single session, its biggest one-day gain on record, while Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures also moved sharply higher. Brent crude fell 4.6% to $83.90 a barrel, reflecting easing supply concerns. Investors are also focused on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which could shift inflation expectations.

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX) sank 21% in July, marking its worst month since October 2008. Across all 22 sessions, the index recorded intraday swings of at least 2%, the first time that has happened since 2020. By the end of July, it was down 23% from its June 22 record high, with all 30 constituents lower and more than half down at least 25%. The selloff wiped $2.2 trillion from the group’s market value.

Cracker Barrel said its CEO will step down and the company will be led by former Bloomin’ Brands CEO David Deno, a move that sent the stock down 6% intraday. Deno’s last five-year CEO run ended with Bloomin’ Brands shares down 15%, sharply lagging the S&P 500 and key restaurant peers. Cracker Barrel also reported comparable-store sales down about 2.5% year over year in the latest reporting period, while its customer base skews older—43% are 55 or older and only 23% are under 34—raising concerns about long-term growth.

Meta reported 2024 second-quarter results with net income of $15.85 billion, down 14% year over year, on revenue of $60.8 billion, up 28%. The company’s free cash flow fell 91% from a year earlier. Meta also lifted its 2026 total expense outlook to a range of $165 billion to $169 billion. The earnings update was positioned as a key performance catalyst that highlights capital-efficiency risks tied to its AI strategy and adds fundamental pressure on the stock.

The escalating war in Iran is stoking concerns over Europe’s gas supply security ahead of winter. European spot gas prices jumped nearly 26% in a week as storage levels sit just above 50%, well below the late-July historical norm. Even in a best-case scenario, Europe’s storage would reach only 75% by November, far short of the 90% policy target. Northwestern Europe, including Germany and the Netherlands, faces the sharpest risk of winter supply gaps.