Shares of Indian sugar companies including Balrampur Chini, Dalmia Bharat Sugar and EID Parry climbed on Tuesday, rising as much as 9%, after global raw sugar prices surged about 4% in a single day. The price move took raw sugar to an 18-month high, lifting the near-term outlook for domestic producers. Supply concerns have intensified as Thailand’s sugar output is expected to fall 17% to below 10 million tonnes.

India’s Nifty and Sensex fell for an eighth consecutive week, marking their longest weekly losing streak in a quarter of a century. Persistent foreign outflows, Brent crude holding above $100 a barrel and the US 10year Treasury yield at its highest level since midJune 2007 have dented demand for emerging-market assets. The rupee also weakened, while markets have priced in a 25 basis point RBI rate hike to 5.50 per cent on 7 October, adding to pressure on equities.

India’s domestic institutional investors have been net buyers of equities for 38 consecutive months since August 2023, bringing total inflows to Rs 20.2 trillion. In 2026 alone, DIIs have already added Rs 6.2 trillion to domestic stocks. Over the same period, foreign institutional investors recorded cumulative outflows of $56 billion, taking their ownership down to a new low of 17%. Across the past 24 months, DII net purchases hit a record $177 billion—23% higher than the prior eight-year cumulative—helping offset persistent foreign selling pressure.

Disruptions to Black Sea shipping have pushed up global wheat prices, prompting Bangladeshi importers to book more than 200,000 tonnes of Indian wheat since India eased export restrictions. Bangladesh imports more than 7 million tonnes of wheat each year, with India previously supplying nearly 70% of its purchases and the Black Sea region accounting for about 40%. Sri Lankan importers have also bought about 60,000 tonnes of Indian wheat. Refined wheat flour prices in Dhaka have risen 17% over the past month.

Dr Reddy’s Laboratories and Takeda have signed an exclusive agreement for the distribution and marketing of Takeda’s dengue vaccine QDENGA in India’s private market. The vaccine has been approved by India’s drug regulator for people aged 4-60 and had previously been cleared in 43 countries, with more than 32 million doses distributed globally. Following the announcement, Dr Reddy’s shares rose 2.09% on the day.

India’s sugar industry has lowered its 2025-26 sugar production estimate to 31 million tonnes from nearly 35 million tonnes, citing weaker sugarcane output and the diversion of more than 3 million tonnes of cane to ethanol. E20 petrol—containing 20% ethanol—is set to become the nationwide standard from 1 April 2026, keeping ethanol demand elevated. Grain ethanol producers say maize-based ethanol demand could rise by 40-50% next year if rice supplies are unchanged, potentially tightening supplies for poultry feed.

Rising oil prices linked to renewed US-Iran tensions have stoked inflation concerns and pushed up expectations for a US Federal Reserve rate hike. A firmer dollar and higher US Treasury yields added to the pressure, with COMEX gold futures settling about 1.5% lower at $4,408.90 an ounce. After climbing roughly 14% in August, the market has lifted the implied probability of a September hike to around 40%.

The silver market is set to post a sixth consecutive year of physical deficit, with the 2026 shortfall projected at 46.3 million ounces, wider than in 2025. Since 2021, a cumulative 762 million ounces has been drawn from above-ground stocks. Even as photovoltaic demand declines, rising investment demand and tight physical supply are still supporting prices. COMEX registered inventories cover only 17.8% of outstanding paper silver positions, implying paper leverage of about 5.6x.

India is tightening controls on sugar stockpiling and will switch to a new quota system from September, requiring mills to sell at least 40% of their allocation in the first week and the balance in the second. With the new crushing season approaching, output is expected to exceed 10 lakh tonnes in October and reach around 45 LMT in November. Ex-mill prices have already fallen by about 20%, while retail price declines are only starting to show.