Bitcoin short sellers have strengthened their positions after a 23% Q4 price drop, while U.S. spot ETF demand and CME Open Interest have fallen to levels last seen in 2024. With basis trade yields dropping from near 10% in early 2025 to around 5%, traders are eyeing possible moves toward $80K on the downside and liquidations near $88K–$90,600 if price spikes.

Bitcoin has closed 2025 in an "extreme fear" zone, after dropping 23% in Q4, its second-worst fourth quarter on record. Changpeng Zhao has pointed to previous fear phases in 2024 and early 2025, when BTC later rallied from around $54K and $77K to over $100K and $126K. Miners' positioning and production-cost levels near $80K currently show limited selling pressure, suggesting room for recovery if demand returns, though analysts remain split on Bitcoin's path into 2026.

In Q4 2025, BitMine Immersion saw an unrealized loss of about $3.5 billion on its $14.6 billion Ethereum position, after ETH slid and consolidated around $2,600–$2,750. Even as distressed treasuries such as SharpLink and ETHZilla reportedly exited their ETH strategies, large holders accumulated more, with one firm disclosing a $1.72 billion purchase and valuation models pointing to a possible 45% upside from roughly $2,900.

Solana reached an all-time high of 409 million staked SOL, according to Blockworks, strengthening security while raising decentralization questions. The Solana Foundation cut delegated SOL from 85 million to 23 million, and validator count fell 68% from 2,500 to 800. RWA holders surpassed 115K, yet Q4 2025 net flows were $216 million versus over $1 billion for BNB Chain and Ethereum.

After the 10 October market crash, Ethena's TVL dropped from $14.8 billion to $7.4 billion as redemptions from its yield-bearing stablecoin USDe reached $8 billion over two months. ENA slid 62% to below $0.2, yet some traders, including Arthur Hayes, used the decline to accumulate the token.

In Q4 2025, Bitcoin has fallen 22.8%, putting it on pace for its second-weakest fourth-quarter result in history and leaving the price consolidating above $85k. Derivatives desks and options analysts expect heightened volatility around the 26 December expiry, with some still eyeing a possible breakout from the current $85k–$90k range. On-chain data platforms warn that demand growth has slowed since early October, raising the risk of a deeper bear phase even if a short-term bounce emerges.

ETHZilla, backed by Peter Thiel, said it sold $74.5 million (24,291 ETH) to reduce debt and will discontinue its mNAV metric while pivoting to tokenization. The reversal follows mNAV slipping below 1 in early December and an October effort to prop it up with $40 million in ETH sales, as broader ETH treasuries and ETFs posted sizable outflows.

According to Dune, Solana’s network activity fell 97% in Q4 2025, with monthly active traders sliding from over 30 million in late 2024 to under 1 million in 2025. SOL dropped from nearly $300 to the $120 yearly support as memecoin-driven activity weakened, while analysts debated outcomes ranging from a $50–$75 target in H1 2026 to a 15% rebound toward $134–$140.

Several major crypto research desks outlined sharply different Bitcoin projections for 2026, with targets ranging from a pullback toward $60K–$65K to a potential move toward $250K. Around $23 billion in BTC options expiring on 26 December and recent ETF outflows near $500 million could shape short‑term volatility around the $85K–$90K range.