According to analysis by Axel Adler Jr., the Bitcoin network is currently experiencing sustained capital outflows, with the 7-day net flow average stuck at −$160M despite some positive daily readings around December 20–25. Elevated supply activity over the last 180 days, combined with predominantly loss-making sales, keeps the market in a risk-off regime until the 7-day moving average of net flows recovers to at least zero.

Over the past 3 months, Bitcoin has fallen 19.7% with a $21.5K drawdown and is down 10.5% year-over-year, while short-term performance has stabilized around flat. Monthly RSI now sits at 56.5, below its 12‑month SMA and close to the 4‑year average, levels that previously marked shifts between cyclical corrections and deeper bearish phases.

Axel Adler Jr. reports the composite sentiment index fell to 40%, flagging risk-off conditions as Bitcoin trades near $87,400 under all short-term holder realized price bands. Nearby hurdles sit at $90,300 and then a cluster at $100,400–$101,800, while the broader realized price support stands at $56,300.

BTC's composite Regime Score sits at +16.3, placing it in the +15–30 neutral bracket associated with historically positive returns. Backtests for 2025 show average gains of +3.8% over 30 days, while the liquidation oscillator is at −11% and Long Liquidation Dominance is 44%, indicating short closures predominance. The mix signals a tactical edge for buyers.

According to Axel Adler Jr., the Miner Financial Health Index is at 22%, while the Demand–Supply Balance reads 38% on a 30‑day average. Nominal miner revenue has fallen to about ~40M, marking local lows and signaling profitability strain even with BTC trading well above summer 2022 levels. A sustained dip below the 20% threshold has historically preceded miner capitulation.

Following the Federal Reserve's rate cut, Bitcoin is holding in a consolidation phase as momentum weakens and derivatives flows remain balanced. Internal indicators point to a neutral regime, with participants favoring cautious positioning over aggressive bets. A trend continuation would require simultaneous bullish confirmation in adaptive momentum and the futures flow index.

Bitcoin’s drawdown has narrowed from –35% to roughly –27% since its October peak near $125,000, with 67% of circulating supply still in profit—signals that point to a stabilizing market rather than deep capitulation, according to analyst Axel Adler Jr. Short-term momentum is beginning to turn upward as BTC consolidates around the $90,000 level.

Bitcoin has rebounded from its October peak and subsequent pullback to around $80K, rising steadily for 14 days and moving close to its 52‑week high as the 200/20DMA slope turns positive. Polymarket is pricing a 96% probability of a 25 b.p. December rate cut to 3.50–3.75%, a backdrop that can support risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's 2025 cycle drawdown is roughly -32% from its all-time high, with prices holding near the $90K area and about 88% of coins still in unrealized profit, according to Axel Adler Jr. Around 12% of supply is at a loss, compared with past bear markets that often saw -60–80% drawdowns and roughly 60% of coins underwater. The current pullback therefore appears comparatively mild versus previous bear phases in terms of both depth and the share of supply in loss.