On-chain data indicates the CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has fallen sharply into bearish territory, reaching levels last seen at the 2022 market bottom after the FTX collapse. The gauge, derived from the P&L Index and its 365-day moving average and incorporating MVRV, NUPL, and LTH/STH SOPR, suggests the market is approaching an extreme bear phase that has often coincided with cycle lows. Bitcoin is trading around $68,000, about 4% lower over the past week, as this indicator continues to trend deeper below zero.

On-chain data indicates that 9.31 million BTC, or 46% of Bitcoin's circulating supply, is currently at a net unrealized loss. Analyst Maartunn argues that this large overhang of underwater coins, concentrated around the $80,000–$95,000 and $105,000–$120,000 ranges, may need to be absorbed by stronger holders before a durable price bottom can form. Bitcoin is presently moving sideways after rebounding from the $60,000 area and is trading near $68,600.

According to on-chain data from Glassnode, Bitcoin's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has recently slipped to about 0.18, placing the market in what the firm labels the hope/fear zone. This level reflects thinner unrealized profits as rallies face selling pressure and downside can deepen if conviction weakens, while Bitcoin's price has moved from around $65,000 on Thursday back to roughly $69,000 on Friday.

Analyst Ali Martinez said on X that Shiba Inu's weekly chart has slipped under the support of a long‑running parallel channel, implying a measured move toward $0.00000138. The level is roughly 77% beneath SHIB's current price near $0.00000615, which is down 2% over the past seven days.

According to data from Alternative, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 9, marking its deepest move into the extreme fear band since the 2022 bear phase. The single-digit reading follows a market pullback that began in the final week of January and coincides with Bitcoin trading near $67,100, about 19% lower over the past seven days. Historically, such depressed sentiment has often appeared around bottom formation zones, though during bear markets the index can remain fearful for extended periods.

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode reports that Bitcoin's entity-adjusted 7-day average Realized Loss climbed to $889 million on Wednesday, the largest single-day loss realization since November 2022. The surge in realized losses accompanied a sharp BTC price decline of more than 21% over the past week, pushing the spot price down to about $66,700 and driving a wave of investor capitulation.

On-chain metrics show the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score has dropped to its weakest reading in years after the price broke below $80,000. Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish notes the indicator, which compares market cap with Realized Cap, has compressed to levels last observed in October 2023, when BTC hovered around $29,000. While Bitcoin still trades near $76,000 and remains in net profit territory, unrealized and realized gains have both declined sharply.

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has reported that past sustained Bitcoin uptrends have generally appeared only when a liquidity gauge called the 90‑day Realized Profit/Loss Ratio stayed above a key level. The metric, which compares realized gains to realized losses, peaked near 20 in the second half of 2025 but has since dropped to below 2, while Bitcoin is trading around $87,800 after a recent pullback. Glassnode's data suggests a renewed rally may require this ratio to climb back above 5 and hold there, although the indicator is still trending downward.

An analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake notes Bitcoin's Supply in Loss has turned upward, with its 365‑day SMA rising after an October cycle low. The metric tracks the share of circulating BTC held at an unrealized loss, a shift that has previously aligned with early bearish phases. Bitcoin is around $89,000, up over 1% in 24 hours.