On January 12, Bitcoin slipped under the estimated $101,000 miner breakeven level while on-chain and macro indicators fueled debate over a possible short-term recovery. Some analysts highlight improving capital flows and supportive valuation metrics, while others point to weakened technical structure and resistance near $96,000 that could still cap upside.

On January 9, 2026, WazirX confirmed Recovery Tokens were credited to eligible users as part of its court-approved restructuring following the 2024 hack. The pro rata RTs are non-tradable and may enable reclaiming roughly 75–80% of locked funds over time, subject to three-month recovery reviews and a $10 million buyback threshold.

In 2025, Ethereum recorded more than $99 billion in DeFi total value locked and processed $18.8 trillion in stablecoin settlements, highlighting its leading role among Layer 1 networks. Lower fees on both the base chain and Layer 2s, along with expanded infrastructure and institutional participation, supported broader usage of DeFi, tokenized assets, and real-world asset distribution throughout the year.

Bitcoin's mining difficulty began to decline in early January 2026, coinciding with BTC trading near $91,000 and below $100,000. According to on-chain analyst Darkfost on January 9, the adjustment includes a roughly 2.6% drop with about 1.88% more expected, potentially easing miner sell pressure and helping stabilize market conditions during consolidation.

Bitcoin is hovering around $90,300 after a week of muted trading, stuck between nearby support at about $89,300 and resistance above $94,400. Analyst Doctor Profit has kept short positions opened between $115,000 and $125,000 and is eyeing a decline toward the $70,000–$75,000 region, citing the U.S. Federal Reserve's recent $106 billion liquidity injection as a warning for risk assets. Other market observers point to key technical zones and note that the current correction, near 29% from last year's high, remains modest compared with previous bear markets.

Truebit Protocol has been hit by a smart contract exploit that drained over 8,500 ETH, valued at around $26.5 million, and caused its TRU token to lose nearly all of its value within hours. The attacker allegedly abused a flaw in the pricing logic to mint TRU at zero cost, sell into the bonding curve, and empty the protocol's ETH reserves. The team has acknowledged the incident, urged users to avoid the affected contract, and is working with law enforcement while the attacker is reportedly linked to a recent Sparkle exploit.

On January 9, 2026, a viral X screenshot alleged Polymarket priced a 53% chance of Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee facing fraud-related charges in 2026. Prominent accounts disputed the claim, and X's AI Grok said no such Polymarket market exists. A direct search on Polymarket the same day found no listing matching the screenshot.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said Bitcoin is likely to face several months of low-volatility, sideways price action as new capital inflows into BTC have largely stalled. He argued that capital has rotated into equities and commodities and that long-term institutional holders, including a firm with 673,000 BTC, make a deep crash less likely. On-chain metrics such as Net Unrealized Profit/Loss and recent reports on market structure suggest a slower, grinding phase, while analysts remain divided on the outlook for the rest of 2026.

Santiment said on January 8 that $100K+ XRP transfers rose from 2,170 on Monday to 2,802 Tuesday, the highest daily total since October. CryptoQuant contributor CryptoOnchain reported Binance reserves near 2.6 billion, the lowest since January 2024, after dropping from roughly 3.25 billion since late 2025. CoinGecko showed XRP around $2.13 after a 6% 24‑hour decline.