Wintermute: Market Structure Improves as Leverage Resets, Major Tokens Less Vulnerable

Wintermute reported on Dec. 2 that market structure has undergone a clean reset following deleveraging triggered by Bank of Japan rate hike expectations, with leverage significantly reduced, funding rates returning to neutral, and spot participation markedly strengthened. Bitcoin 90-day annualized basis stands near 4% to 5%, while Ethereum basis approaches 3% to 4%, reflecting cycle lows. Perpetual contract open interest has declined from approximately $230 billion in early October to around $135 billion currently, removing excess leverage and reducing mechanical liquidation risks. The combination of lower leverage, negative funding, and healthier spot participation typically precedes market recovery once macro conditions stabilize, the firm noted.