Since October 13, 2025, Bitcoin short-term holders have been selling coins below their purchase prices, with the weekly STH SOPR stuck under 1.0 and a Z-Score at -0.58. As of January 11, the 7-day STH SOPR stands at 0.994 and the daily value at 0.9817, indicating a loss-dominated environment that may only shift once the 7-day average climbs back above 1.0 and the Z-Score turns positive.

Bitcoin's decline from the October 2025 peak sits near −27%, after a maximum pullback of −33%, much lighter than prior cycle troughs of −75% to −92%. The price near ~$91K is about 2x above the base CVDD level at $46.6K, a zone tied to bottom formation. A break below −40% would warn of a deeper, late‑cycle style correction.

Bitcoin moved back above $92,000 as risk appetite returned. Derivatives indicators show a positive composite Z-Score and negative 7‑day OI–price divergence, implying spot demand is driving the advance. This setup suggests a moderate expansion regime, with overheating risks only if divergence flips positive without price support.

Bitcoin Realized Price Bands use on-chain realized cost data and predefined multipliers to map Bitcoin's macro valuation zones across market cycles. By comparing spot price to realized price and its bands, analysts can identify capitulation, accumulation, optimism, and euphoria phases, and study examples from 2015, 2018–2019, 2021, 2022 and 2024. The framework is most often combined with STH SOPR and exchange netflow for long-term risk assessment rather than short-term trading calls.

According to Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin is holding around $88–89K while derivatives taker-flow metrics weaken in tandem. Cumulative Flow Z sits in the -1 to -2σ range and Ratio Z SMA(30) reads -0.3; a sustained drop of Flow Z below -2 with Ratio Z below -0.4 could open risk toward the $85–87K zone.

According to Axel Adler Jr., the Bitcoin LTH Distribution Pressure Index is at -1.628, aligning with the Accumulation regime, while the 7‑day average of LTH spent sits at 221 BTC/day. SOPR at 1.13 indicates sales in profit, yet activity remains muted around $87K; the Accumulation streak has lasted 5 days since December 28.

Bitcoin Exchange Netflow measures the difference between BTC inflows and outflows on centralized exchanges and helps assess buy and sell pressure. This guide explains how the metric is calculated, how to read positive, negative and neutral values, and how to turn them into trading signals with concrete historical examples. It also shows how to combine Netflow with indicators like SOPR, funding rates and exchange reserves, while outlining key limitations and risks.

According to Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin's short-term holders are underwater as price trades below their average cost basis, and the STH Realized Price keeps falling. Stress has persisted since October 17, with weekly and monthly gains of +0.9% and +2.3% but a −26.7% quarterly drop; the model expects ~3% downside over the next week.

After the pullback from October's highs, Bitcoin is trading in the $87–90K band while Supply in Profit has contracted to 13.5M BTC. According to the analysis, the gap between the 30-day and 90-day moving averages of this metric is shrinking by about 28K BTC per day, opening room for a bullish crossover between late February and early March 2026 if price stays above $75–80K. A drop toward or below $70K could instead recreate a 2022-style bearish configuration and delay recovery for up to a year.