As of January, estimated electricity and all-in production costs to mine one BTC are about $59,450 and $74,300, while Bitcoin traded near $82,500 on Friday. A recent drop in hash rate and a reported miner pullback point to downside toward that cost band, though prior cycles have seen rebounds toward an energy-value fair price around $120,950.

In January 2026, the BTC/XAU ratio dropped beneath its long-term Power Law band and the 200-2W EMA level that had previously aligned with Bitcoin’s major dollar-denominated lows. This move came as gold rallied beyond $5,000 and large banks projected further gains toward $6,000 by year-end, while some analysts warned Bitcoin could fall under $50,000 after peaking near $126,200 in October 2025. A potential reversal in gold’s uptrend later in 2026 could ease pressure on BTC/XAU and reopen the path to price targets around $140,000.

Bitcoin has previously fallen about 30% from local highs during Japanese yen intervention periods before rebounding by more than 100%, a pattern some market participants are watching as talk of renewed JPY action grows. Analysts warn BTC could slide toward the $65,000–$70,000 zone if this fractal repeats, while onchain indicators such as NUPL and delta growth rate still point to an incomplete bottoming process.

The gap between long- and short-dated US government bond yields has reached its widest level since 2021, raising concerns about Bitcoin's performance heading into 2026. Strategists warn that Japan's record 30-year yield and gold's recent strength, alongside higher long-term Treasury rates, could weigh on high-beta assets such as BTC around key price levels.

According to on-chain analyst Darkfrost, XRP funding rates on Binance have stayed mostly negative in recent months, echoing conditions that preceded rebounds of about 50% in August–September 2024 and around 100% in April–July 2025. Bears are eyeing a drop toward the 200-week EMA near $1.40 if XRP cannot hold the $1.80–$2.00 support band and reclaim the 50-week EMA at $2.22.

US-based Bitcoin selling intensified as the 30-day Coinbase Premium Gap fell to around −63.85, a one-year low, signaling pressure on BTC's price. A rising wedge on the daily chart raises the odds of a break below $90,000, with $80,000–$78,000 in focus if support fails.

Bitcoin (BTC) broke above a multi‑week pattern and retested about $95,000, putting a measured objective near $107,000 in play by February. Long‑dormant holder distribution has slowed and coins are moving off exchanges, tightening supply, while a potential 20‑/50‑day EMA bull cross and a negative correlation to gold add to the bullish case.

Bitcoin fell to its deepest historical discount against gold on Friday in 2026, as the BTC/XAU Z-score dropped below minus 2 standard deviations. This extreme undervaluation level has previously coincided with major Bitcoin bottoms, including a roughly 150% price rally after a similar signal in late 2022, and has some analysts expecting BTC to strongly outperform gold if past patterns repeat.

Dash climbed 125% to $79.60 on Wednesday as capital shifted from Zcash into privacy-focused cryptocurrencies and traders sought alternatives after governance issues at Zcash. The rally coincided with the EU\u0027s DAC8 rules taking effect on Jan. 1, 2026, and followed Dash\u0027s partnership with Alchemy Pay, but the price now faces multiyear technical resistance that could precede a steep correction.