Bitcoin is trading around $90,624 after a pullback from its strong start to the year, with analysts highlighting a potential resistance zone just below $100,000. On-chain data indicates that new whale buyers have an average cost basis close to $99,000, while long-term whales and miners hold at significantly lower levels near $39,681 and $58,681. This positioning suggests structurally bullish conditions, but also points to $99,000 as a critical level where profit-taking or breakeven selling could intensify.

On January 9, analyst BitBull outlined on X a bullish Bitcoin outlook, arguing that a weekly Relative Strength Index breakout could lift BTC toward $103,000–$105,000 over the next three to four weeks. The projection implies around a 15% advance from the current price area near $90,600, where Bitcoin has mostly traded around $90,000 with brief moves above $91,000. The analyst's view references a similar RSI breakout in April 2025, which occurred before Bitcoin climbed to its all-time high of $126,080.

After closing 2025 on a weak note, Dogecoin has gained nearly 24% since the start of the new year and is trading around 0.1415 with a more than 2% daily increase. On January 3, Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson said DOGE has moved into a major CVDD-based accumulation zone, where historical data show strong structural support. Recent on-chain and price action suggest this region could mark the early phase of a longer-term uptrend for the meme coin through 2026.

Bitcoin's Sharpe Ratio recently moved into negative territory even as price strength returns, according to Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson. He noted that robust performance historically aligns with readings above 1, while sub-0 phases often coincide with consolidation. As of this writing, BTC is near $89,886, up 1.4% day-over-day, with commentary pointing to a cautious stance for 2026.

On Friday, January 2nd, Bitcoin's price climbed above the $90,000 psychological mark, extending a post–New Year rally in the broader crypto market. However, on-chain analyst Burak Kesmeci argues that BTC must close above the Short-Term Holder Realized Price near $99,000, and ultimately break into the $99,000–$102,000 band, before a sustained bull trend can be confirmed. As of the latest reading, Bitcoin trades around $90,110, up about 2% in 24 hours.

XRP has traded with a bearish tone in December, slipping towards the $1.80 area as multiple support zones failed under selling pressure. Market analyst CryptoOnchain notes that XRP's weekly chart now shows a bearish divergence between price and the Relative Strength Index, hinting at weakening momentum. At the same time, Binance open interest in XRP derivatives has dropped to about $450 million, its lowest level since November 2024, while the token changes hands around $1.87 after a 1.5% daily gain.

Bitcoin is trading around $87,810, more than 30% below its roughly $126,000 peak from early October 2025, when a sharp downturn began after the October 10 market drop. On-chain data from CryptoQuant, highlighted by analyst Axel Adler Jr. on December 27, shows BTC has gone 1,079 days without strong selling pressure, approaching the prior record of about 1,125 days. This extended period of limited distribution suggests structural resilience, although it does not guarantee further price gains.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, Bitcoin has been underperforming while short-term holders have reportedly endured 60 straight days of deeply negative STH MVRV values. This on-chain pattern, highlighted by market quant Burak Kesmeci, coincides with BTC trading below its 111-day simple moving average and signals an extended stress phase for reactive investors. With Bitcoin hovering around $87,380 and little daily price movement, the market appears caught between potential capitulation-driven selling and a possible stabilization phase.

Bitcoin has been capped below the $90,000 psychological zone during the Christmas period, while other asset classes logged stronger festive rallies. On-chain analyst Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, projects via a Repetition Fractal Cycle chart that BTC could carve out its next bear-market bottom around early October 2026 in the $41,500–$45,000 range. This scenario implies a potential drawdown of roughly 50% from the current price of about $87,550 and around a 65% correction from the cycle peak, though he stresses it is a probabilistic fractal pattern rather than a fixed forecast.