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Qatar and UAE to join U.S.-backed Pax Silica tech pact in January 2026
On January 12, 2026, Qatar is scheduled to sign the Pax Silica agreement, with the UAE set to follow on January 15, joining a U.S.-backed alliance focused on AI and semiconductor supply chains. The initiative groups nine countries in a "coalition of capabilities" to strengthen technology networks and reduce reliance on rival powers. Plans for 2026 include expanding membership, launching strategic projects and aligning policies to protect critical infrastructure and advanced technologies.
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Kenya Halts China Trade Pact After U.S. Warning as AGOA Expiry Raises Job and Tariff Risks
A proposed trade pact between Kenya and China has been paused after the United States raised objections, affecting cabinet, parliamentary, and presidential approval steps. The deal would remove Chinese tariffs on Kenyan farm exports, while the expiry of AGOA on September 30, 2025 exposes over $600 million in U.S.-bound apparel exports to tariffs of up to 28% and threatens more than 66,000 jobs. Kenya now faces pressure over whether to prioritize its long-standing security ties with Washington or its largest creditor, Beijing.
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Chinese AI leaders target closing US tech gap by 2030 despite chip equipment limits
On January 10 2026, leading Chinese AI researchers in Beijing said China could produce a world-leading AI company within three to five years, even though the US still dominates computing power. They warned that the main obstacle is the lack of advanced chipmaking tools, with a prototype extreme-ultraviolet lithography machine not expected to yield working chips until 2030. Investors have shown strong interest as MiniMax and Zhipu AI made notable debuts on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, while local firms experiment with running large AI models on smaller, cheaper hardware under tight budgets.
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Morgan Stanley sees Chinese yuan strengthening to 6.85 per US dollar by early 2026
Morgan Stanley investment analysts project that the Chinese yuan could firm to 6.85 against the US dollar by the first quarter of 2026, supported by China's evolving global investment approach. The forecast comes as outbound investment from Chinese firms now exceeds inbound foreign capital and the country pivots from fast, investment-heavy expansion toward higher-quality growth. The bank also anticipates that a narrowing interest-rate gap between the US and China, alongside domestic policy measures, could further underpin the currency.
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