Middle East ceasefire pushes Brent back to $US73 a barrel as long-term Hormuz risks linger
After the US and Iran agreed a 60-day ceasefire in the Middle East, Brent crude fell from wartime highs near $US120 a barrel to about $US73 a barrel and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz largely resumed. However, mines Iran laid in the strait have yet to be cleared, Iran may later charge vessels for transiting the waterway, and insurance rates remain elevated at 3–8%. With refinery and strategic inventories heavily drawn down and China’s May crude imports down about 40% year on year, the market faces a mix of a short-term supply surge and a longer-term risk premium.