WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said supply-chain bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz are putting global trade at risk of its most severe disruption in 80 years, threatening food and fertilizer prices, according to Anadolu. She noted that global goods trade expanded 4.6% this year, beating expectations, and that 72% of global commerce continues to operate under WTO rules. She also pointed to WTO estimates that crude oil at $90 a barrel could cut overall trade growth by 0.5 points, with prices now above that level.

Rising geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and recurring security concerns in the Strait of Hormuz are driving up insurance premiums for energy shipments, increasing operating costs for oil tankers and LNG carriers. Even without physical closures of key sea lanes, higher risk pricing is weakening the commercial viability of some routes and tightening effective deliverable supply of crude oil and liquefied natural gas. The result is a financial transmission mechanism that supports near-term energy prices without any change in production.