A preliminary deal has theoretically reopened the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran has set transit conditions, including mandatory insurance and a designated route, while the threat from mines remains unresolved. Insurers may void coverage under current war-risk terms, leaving shipowners wary about safety and liability. Tanker movements rose to their highest level since June, but shipping groups say the risks to safe passage have not been addressed. About 20% of global crude oil shipments move through the strait, making the uncertainty a direct concern for supply stability.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance said the Trump administration is confident it can temporarily lift sanctions on Iranian oil without seeking congressional approval. The shift could significantly expand Iran’s crude export capacity. Several Senate leaders said they were not notified in advance and raised concerns about a $300 billion regional reconstruction fund and whether looser sanctions could bolster Iran’s regional proxies. The policy change, if implemented, would directly add to global oil supply and put material downward pressure on prices.

President Donald Trump said the anticipated U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement has not been finalized and could still collapse before a formal signing on Friday, keeping markets focused on potential disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices were lower on the week but moved higher in afternoon trading, with Brent at $79.48 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $76.59. The International Energy Agency projected an 8 million barrels-per-day oil supply surplus next year as demand rises by 2 million barrels per day, while warning inventories could still fall to historic lows before the market rebalances.

The Trump administration has reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran aimed at ending the conflict, with Vice President JD Vance taking the lead in public messaging. The document has not been formally released, and Iranian accounts of its contents have diverged from U.S. descriptions, prompting Republican hawks to demand Congress review the text. Negotiations are still underway and fighting in Lebanon continues, leaving the MOU’s practical force and prospects for implementation unclear.