CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has turned green for the first time since March 2023, shifting into what it labels an "Early Bull" phase. The move follows the indicator's drop into an "Extreme Bear" reading after the early-February sell-off and its subsequent recovery through March, April, and May. Bitcoin was trading around $80,700 at the time of writing, down 0.5% over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin’s on-chain signals have improved, with the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio moving out of the "panic zone" as highlighted by CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr. The analyst also noted Realized Cap has turned upward and its 30-day change is slightly positive, indicating modest net inflows over the past month. BTC price action has remained rangebound, hovering near $81,000.

XRP on-chain indicators tied to adoption and usage have dropped sharply from their late-2024 highs, suggesting the earlier speculative burst has eased. New addresses are now about 2,700 per day versus 18,000 at the December 2024 peak, while 1-month active supply has slipped to around 2 billion tokens from 7.45 billion. XRP's price also pulled back after briefly trading above $1.45 on Wednesday and later hovering near $1.38.

Bitcoin has not yet flashed three indicators that have often coincided with bear-market bottoms, including reclaiming the short-term holder (STH) cost basis, per analyst Willy Woo. The STH cohort is defined as buyers from the past 155 days, and their average breakeven is cited around $81,000, leaving recent holders with more than a 14% unrealized loss. Bitcoin ended last week below $67,000 and later rebounded to about $69,500 to start Monday.

Ethereum fell nearly 5% over the past 24 hours after briefly reclaiming $2,150 and then sliding back near $2,000. Derivatives positioning shifted ahead of the move, with a 7.1% increase in ETH open interest on Wednesday. More than $94 million in ETH positions were liquidated over the past day, while Bitcoin saw $83.8 million.

Bitcoin’s average deposit size sent to centralized exchanges rose sharply, with the mean Exchange Inflow reaching 2.62 BTC. The move is described as an uncommon level that has historically shown up during stressed market conditions, while BTC was last noted trading around $68,500.

Glassnode said smaller Bitcoin holder cohorts shifted into distribution during the latest upswing, based on its Wallet Size Accumulation Trend Score. The <1 BTC and 1–10 BTC groups moved into heavy selling as BTC pushed toward $76,000, while the 1,000–10,000 BTC cohort only slightly crossed above neutral. BTC later traded around $66,700 after a pullback.

XRP derivatives open interest climbed over the past day while spot price weakened, suggesting traders added fresh positions after the pullback. The broader market also saw $450 million in liquidations, including about $401 million from long positions, as XRP fell to the $1.33 level.

CryptoQuant said Bitcoin’s Realized Price—the network’s average cost basis—is currently around $54,000, a level BTC historically revisited or stayed below during prior bear markets. The firm noted BTC has remained above this metric since breaking through it at the end of the 2022 bear market, while short-term holders are underwater with their realized price above spot. Bitcoin was trading near $68,400 at the time of the update.