Crypto analyst Tony Severino contends that Bitcoin’s primary bullish cycle has already run its course, based on traditional market cycle theory and U.S. ISM PMI data. He notes that the PMI trend of lower highs and lower lows, with the index near 47.9 and key risk levels at 46 and 41.6, signals a weakening backdrop that conflicts with expectations for a fresh major uptrend. Severino also highlights a monthly moving-average breakdown and past 40% to 60% drawdowns, suggesting a potential downside target around $45,000 before any renewed bullish phase.

Ethereum remains under pressure, with four losing months recorded in 2025 and January 2026 tracking toward a fifth. According to CryptoRank, ETH fell 5.59% in September, 22.2% in November, and 0.83% in December. On-chain data shows January down 1.78% so far, while ETH trades above $2,900 after a roughly 5.95% weekly drop.

Dogecoin’s daily chart is showing a potential shift in trend as price compresses around long-term support near $0.12 while a clear bullish RSI divergence emerges. Technical analysis also highlights a developing double-bottom pattern within a descending channel, suggesting weakening bearish momentum and possible accumulation. With Dogecoin trading around $0.1221, reclaiming $0.16 and later $0.31 is seen as key for confirming a stronger upside move.

Retail traders are betting on XRP gains via Robinhood's prediction markets, where the 2026 $2.75 contract is quoted at a $0.66 bid and $0.73 ask. XRP trades around $1.88 after a January 6 rejection at $2.41, while CoinMarketCap's Fear & Greed Index reads 29, and pricing suggests roughly a 40% upside from current levels.

According to commentator Waterman on X, altcoins have previously compressed three to four years of downside into four to six weeks of sharp upside, with a recurring performance window between February and late April or early May. The 2021 cycle saw Solana jump from about $20 to $200 in roughly 50 days, Dogecoin surge from $0.07 to $0.73 in under a month, and Avalanche rally from around $3 to $60 in less than 40 days. While strong Bitcoin dominance and ETF-driven flows have so far limited a broad altcoin season, the coming weeks are being watched closely as investors grow more selective and seek clearer utility beyond meme coins.

An analyst argues that Ethereum's recent trading around $2,950 is being misread, noting a tightening triangle of higher lows on the daily chart that has formed since December 2025. He believes the key risk is trying to short ETH while support at $2,860 and $2,780 remains intact, as holding these zones could send price back toward resistance just under $3,340. Despite weaker spot ETF flows and softer sentiment, large managers are still active in Ethereum, including a proposed staked ETF and a major firm lifting its staking exposure above 1.94 million ETH.

Since July 2025, XRP has formed lower highs while moving inside a roughly 400-day rectangle that a ChartNerd analysis frames as a macro bull flag. The setup shows support near $1.8, resistance around $3.6, and a measured objective near $23 if resistance breaks. XRP trades around $1.92, making the projected move over 1,000%.

CryptoBull says XRP's next impulse could reach $11 before a final wave toward $70, mirroring a prior bull run. Analyst CW projects a $21.5 target by year-end, while Chart Nerd highlights a short-term move to $2.40 if resistance at $2.13–$2.20 breaks.

Technical analysis shared by CryptoBullet on X compares Bitcoin's recent price structure with a 2022 fractal, noting a sharp 28.7% retrace from the October 2025 peak and a move back under $90,000 after failing to hold above $97,000 on January 14. The projection suggests Bitcoin could stage one more rally above $100,000 around February 2026 before potentially rejecting at the 50-week moving average, provided support above $83,000 remains intact. If the 2022 pattern continues to play out, the mid-term outlook could turn bearish with a later drop below $71,500, though the fractal is described as a guide rather than a guarantee.