Bitcoin's market structure is flashing a potential bottom as a macro model based on the US and China 10-year yields issues a fresh bullish crossover. Large Bitcoin holders holding between 1,000 BTC and 10,000 BTC have resumed accumulation during the latest price drop, while key weekly moving averages and an oversold RSI suggest room for a rebound toward the $100,000 area in the coming months.

Strategy's STRC preferred stock, which currently yields 11.50% annually with monthly cash distributions, has helped fund purchases of over 3,500 BTC so far this week. With a 30-day average STRC trading volume of $138.5 million and Bitcoin near $71,000, the structure implies potential buying capacity of around 1,940 BTC per day, and Strategy's total holdings could surpass 1 million BTC by August.

Bitwise Europe's research head André Dragosch shared an analysis of Bitcoin's history from July 17, 2010 to Feb. 11, 2026, showing that holding BTC for at least three years historically left just a 0.70% chance of loss. Glassnode's realized-price data indicate three–five-year holders still sit near 90% gains despite a drawdown from the October 2025 peak.

On Monday, Glassnode flagged that Bitcoin's 90‑day realized profit/loss ratio fell below 1, indicating traders are selling at a loss for the first time since 2022. Similar signals preceded declines of about 25% in 2022 and over 50% in 2018. MVRV pricing bands place an extreme-low zone near $43,760 as of February if weakness persists.

Ether is moving toward a test of the $1,500 support area after breaking down from a bear pennant pattern, with a chart-based objective near $1,475 by late February or early March. At the same time, Vitalik Buterin’s Kanro entity has been selling part of a planned 16,384 ETH allocation, and onchain data indicate roughly 7,000-plus ETH still remain to be distributed. This combination of technical weakness and ongoing founder-linked supply could keep downside pressure on the ETH price in the near term.

According to recent CFTC data, non-commercial traders in CME Bitcoin futures have flipped from a net long of about 1,000 contracts to a net short position of roughly -1,600, a pattern that previously aligned with a 70% BTC rally in 2025 and a 190% gain in 2023. As Bitcoin trades near its 200-week EMA and with its weekly RSI in oversold territory, analysts see scope for a rebound toward the 100-week EMA around $85,000, while warning that a repeat of the 2022 breakdown could still drag prices toward the $40,000–$50,000 area.

A Bitcoin on-chain gauge tracking short‑term holders has fallen to its deepest oversold level since 2018, a zone historically associated with cycle troughs. Past signals were followed by a roughly 150% one‑year rebound and a 1,900% three‑year advance, while a separate projection sees up to $150 billion entering risk assets by the end of March 2026.

Bernstein's recent outlook says Bitcoin could still reach $150,000 by end‑2026 if key conditions align. BTC needs to hold above its 200‑week SMA, see new‑investor flows turn positive, watch USDT dominance retreat, address quantum‑risk concerns, and benefit from additional Fed rate cuts in 2026, with CME pricing implying at least two.

In February, USDT’s market share revisited the 8.50%–9.00% band that previously aligned with Bitcoin’s bear‑market lows, according to TradingView. The same signal is appearing again in 2026, while BTC’s weekly RSI dipped below 30 and price rebounded near the 200‑week SMA, improving odds of a near‑term bottom around $60,000.