Bitcoin is under pressure from two sides: sustained selling and a fresh macro headwind. Analysts say a strengthening U.S. dollar is adding to downside forces. They also point to continued distribution as weighing on the market.

The U.S. economic calendar is crowded for June 22–26, with several releases expected to shape inflation and growth expectations. Fresh inflation data is due, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. Geopolitical rhetoric is also intensifying again in the Middle East.

Another weekly batch of crypto options is set to expire as spot markets turn lower again. About 30,500 Bitcoin options and 137,600 Ethereum contracts are due to roll off on Friday, June 19. The combined notional value of the expiries is around $2.1 billion.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy says its Bitcoin reserve provides 32 years of dividend coverage. The claim is based on the firm’s BTC treasury being worth just under $55 billion versus $1.7 billion in dividend obligations. Critics argue the calculation depends on assumptions that may not hold, including Bitcoin’s price and whether Strategy needs to sell BTC to fund payouts.

Crypto prices opened the week in the green as traders weighed headlines around an Iran peace deal and a packed US macro calendar running from June 15 to 19. Markets are also focused on Wednesday's Federal Reserve rate decision and Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair, alongside May industrial production, housing starts, and retail sales data.

Roughly 35,000 Bitcoin options are set to expire on Friday, June 12, with a notional value near $2.23 billion, while about 175,000 Ethereum options worth around $293 million also roll off. Max pain levels are cited at roughly $67,000 for BTC and $1,750 for ETH, as spot markets remain pressured even with BTC up about 2% to around $63,500.

Bitcoin hovered around $62,000 as geopolitical risk rose after Iran said it had closed the Strait of Hormuz and the US reported additional strikes in the region. US CPI climbed to 4.2% on Thursday, the highest in three years, adding pressure to risk assets. The broader crypto market cap sat near $2.2 trillion, close to levels last seen in October 2024.

Santiment said Tuesday that many retail traders have effectively given up on Ethereum, a setup it argues can increase the odds of a rebound when pessimism becomes widespread. It added that ETH social sentiment has slid into an "extreme fear zone" after months of lagging Bitcoin and other altcoins. ETH also hit an intraday low of $1,620 twice in the past 24 hours, while Glassnode reported only 11% of ETH supply is held at more than 3x profit.

Fidelity Digital Assets said Tuesday that Bitcoin remains under short-term pressure, noting the asset has stayed in a death cross for more than 200 days and briefly dipped below the 200-week moving average over the weekend. The firm highlighted a realized price of $53,600 and said longer-term indicators are beginning to shift even as near-term signals still look bearish. Bitcoin rebounded to $64,000 on Monday but slid to an intraday low of $62,500 during Asian trading Tuesday.