A surprise rise in UK economic output has reinforced market expectations that the Bank of England could raise interest rates four times over the coming year, with money-market pricing pointing to a move in the benchmark rate from 3.75% to 4.75%. Economists said the economy’s resilience gives hawkish policymakers more justification to push for a rate increase in the fourth quarter. Separately, Brent crude fell more than 2.5% on Friday, slipping back below $105 a barrel.

UK consumer price inflation rose to 2.9% year on year in July, up from 2.6%, staying above the central bank’s 2% target for 22 consecutive months. Services inflation eased to 3.4%, while core inflation stood at 2.6%. The government also sold medium-term gilts at a yield of 5.155%, the highest for such debt since 2007.

Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran pushed international oil prices higher after Iran said it would adopt a “fully offensive” strategy. Brent crude traded at $91.33 per barrel and WTI at $85.08 per barrel. Tight global diesel supply drove crack spreads above $100 for the first time. The International Energy Agency reported global refinery runs fell by 5 million bpd year on year.

Kuwait produced 1.971 million barrels of crude oil per day in July, up from 1.65 million bpd in June and 580,000 bpd in May, reflecting the completion of OPEC+’s output-cut reversal. Over the same period, Kazakhstan’s production fell sharply after Ukrainian drone attacks hit Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, triggering repeated CPC pipeline stoppages. The disruptions cut Kazakhstan’s output from over 2 million bpd in June to about 1 million bpd in late July, creating a short-term supply shock alongside structural supply increases.